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Erdogan’s plan for return of Syrian refugees unlikely to succeed

Erdogan’s new plan to encourage the voluntary return of Syrian refugees promises little success as long as fighting, militia violations and insecurity continue in Syria.

Displaced Syrians arriving with their belongings in a convoy of trucks at a new housing complex.
This picture shows an aerial view of internally displaced Syrians arriving with their belongings in a convoy of trucks at a new housing complex in the opposition-held area of Bizaah, east of the city of al-Bab in the northern Aleppo governorate, built with the support of Turkey's emergencies agency AFAD, on Feb. 9, 2022. — BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Images

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced an ambitious plan to encourage the return of Syrian refugees, a hot-button issue increasingly dominating Turkey’s agenda ahead of elections next year. But his move is hardly more than a return to an already failed project.

Three years ago, Erdogan had presented a plan at the UN General Assembly to move 2 million Syrian refugees to prospective new settlements in northern Syria, but he failed to muster international support as the plan required the creation of a safe zone and multibillion-dollar funds. 

Earlier this week, Erdogan spoke by video link at the inauguration of cinder block homes in northern Syria intended for refugees in Turkey, noting that 500,000 Syrians had so far returned to safe regions in the country. “Now, we are preparing for a project that will secure the voluntary return of 1 million of our Syrian brothers,” Erdogan said. “The project, which we’ll carry out in cooperation with [opposition-affiliated] local councils in 13 areas, is rather comprehensive. It will cover all needs of daily life, from housing to schools and hospitals, as well as a self-sufficient economic infrastructure, from agriculture to industry.” As for the cinder block homes, he said over 57,000 homes out of 77,000 planned had been already built, and 50,000 families had settled in. Ankara aims to increase the total to 100,000 homes, he added.

As recently as March, Erdogan insisted his government would not send the refugees back, evoking an Islamic concept of solidarity. His U-turn follows opposition pledges to get the Syrians to go, which have grown more vocal as the elections approach, mirroring the growing discontent of a populace struggling with severe economic woes.

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