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Iraq's political deadlock: three scenarios

Iraq's new parliament has failed to form a government and the political scene is stuck in a difficult deadlock, indicating that the crisis is likely to continue for a long time.

Iraqi members of the Sadrist bloc (of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr) gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital, Baghdad.
Iraqi members of the Sadrist bloc (of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr) gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital, Baghdad, ahead of the country's presidential election, on March 26, 2022. Iraq's parliament today postponed once again a session to elect the country's new president over a lack of quorum. — AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP via Getty Images

About six months after Iraq's parliamentary elections, the new government has yet to be formed. What are the possible scenarios and consequences?

Background: Iraq's elections were held on Oct. 10, 2021, about six months before the regularly scheduled elections, in response to the demands of protesters in 2019-2020. They were supposed to provide a solution to the political crisis in the country that had led to about a year of protests that included violence against protesters, with about 600 killed and 30,000 wounded. But it appears that the elections not only had not come with workable solutions but had also added fuel to the fire.

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