While Israel and other countries are scratching their heads trying to understand Russia’s intentions in the region in light of its recent pronouncements on Russia’s interceptions of Israeli missiles in Syria, attention is focusing increasingly on the troubling developments in Lebanon.

Israel’s alleged attacks on Iranian targets in Syria in recent years appear to have run their course and accomplished as much as they can in blocking Iran’s entrenchment there, although its presence there remains. Israel’s eyes are now turning to the starving, divided country on its northern border — Lebanon — which would serve as the most likely launchpad for a future war with Israel. Israel believes that the greater the domestic deterioration in Lebanon, the more destructive will be Hezbollah’s firepower if it opts for war with Israel.

Israel’s greatest concern is what it dubs the “precision project,” Hezbollah’s intense ongoing effort to upgrade as many of the rockets in its arsenals as possible into precision missiles, making them strategic weapons as far as Israel is concerned. Israeli intelligence assessments put the number of such adapted rockets at several dozen, a quantity that could increase into the hundreds within two-three years, barring unforeseen developments. This would constitute a strategic tie-breaker, turning the armed Shiite terrorist organization into a force capable of paralyzing Israel for long days in case of a military clash.

Would Israeli decision-makers consider such a force multiplier a red line, a casus belli for declaring war or taking other offensive action to stop Hezbollah’s precision armament? No one has an answer to this fateful question. Reportedly, Israel’s top military echelons do not believe Israel has reached a point of no return that necessitates an answer right now, but no one deludes themselves into thinking that moment is far in the future. Even if not imminent, a time will come when Israeli decision-makers will have to make one of the toughest decisions in the history of the state.