How Israeli hurdle in Palestinian elections may benefit Abbas

Shin Bet chief Nadav Argaman reportedly told Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at a recent meeting that until Israel installs a new government, he will not get an answer regarding permission for residents of east Jerusalem to vote in the May 22 Palestinian elections. Abbas declared in January that the Palestinians would hold a parliamentary vote that has been postponed repeatedly since its 2010 by disputes between Fatah and Hamas.

Argaman need not have bothered to try to dissuade Abbas, who should have known the type of trouble he was courting by holding the vote. “He was certain the elections would enable the Palestinian Authority to return to the Gaza Strip or at least grant it a foothold there,” a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Instead, by declaring elections Abbas is about to provide Hamas with a foothold in the West Bank.”

The question now is whether his stubbornness and honor will compel Abbas to keep his word and hold the elections as scheduled. Reports have begun to emerge this week in the Palestinian Authority and Israel about a possible postponement amid mounting tensions. Hamas warned last week that delaying the elections would stir public frustration and unrest that could deteriorate into clashes with Israel, and that the Israeli-Palestinian clashes that broke out in Jerusalem and elsewhere last week would pale in comparison.

Israeli security officials are warning that Palestinian elections at this time would be disastrous, a regional and international catastrophe. They warn that rather than the PA regaining a foothold in Gaza, from which it was ejected by Hamas following the 2006 parliamentary elections, Hamas would gain a foothold in the Palestinian Authority. The movement is heading into the elections as a united front, while Abbas’ Fatah faction is more divided than ever.