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Who really won in south Caucasus?

While the conventional wisdom is that Russia allowed Turkey to soften Armenia for the kill, then swooped in and imposed its own terms, talk of Russia’s big win may be somewhat overstated.
YEREVAN, ARMENIA - NOVEMBER 11: A woman waves an Armenian flag as protesters march to demand the removal of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan from office near the Armenian parliament building on November 11 2020 in Yerevan, Armenia. Opposition parties arranged a protest demanding the Prime Minister’s resignation after Armenia ceded large swathes of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan following a six-weeks-long war over the contested territory.

Of all Turkey’s recent foreign forays, it was the fastest and most decisive.

Turkey’s intervention in September with military advisers, precision drones and Syrian mercenaries allowed Azerbaijan to wrest back all its territories occupied by Armenia for almost three decades in six bloody weeks. The country’s strongman President Ilham Aliyev has been given a big boost. Turkish hard power has shifted the balance in the south Caucasus, much as it's done in Syria and Libya. Yet Moscow, which sat on its hands through much of the conflict, is seen by many as the real winner. Is it?

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