Skip to main content

Erdogan threatens Assad forces, seeks de-escalation in Idlib

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara will retaliate if Syrian regime forces do not pull back from Turkish observation posts in Idlib by the end of the month.
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan adresses the audience during the official opening of the new Cambridge Central Mosque, in Cambridge, Britain, December 5, 2019. Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. - RC23PD94I1I1

ISTANBUL — Amid an ongoing offensive in Idlib that has displaced half a million civilians, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to act against Russian-backed Syrian forces if they did not fall back from Turkish observation posts by the end of the month.

“We want the regime to immediately retreat to the borders stipulated by the Sochi agreement — in other words, to retreat behind our observation posts,” Erdogan said in the Turkish Parliament Wednesday.

He added that if the forces failed to pull back from 12 Turkish observation posts, two of which have been surrounded by Syrian troops, “Turkey itself will have to take over the matter.”

It is the latest development following Monday’s clashes between Turkish and forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that left at least eight Turkish soldiers and 13 Syrian soldiers dead. The statement comes as a Syrian offensive has increased tensions on the ground in Syria while straining diplomatic relations between Ankara and Moscow, who have sought to de-escalate fighting Idlib, the last rebel-held enclave in the nation’s nine-year-old conflict.

Citing repeated infringements of the 2018 Sochi memorandum of understanding between Ankara, Moscow and Tehran, Erdogan said Turkish forces were running out of options if they wanted to stop the violence and a possible mass exodus of refugees to Turkey from Idlib, home to about three million civilians.

“From now on, the violations by the regime will be retaliated for by targeting its military units as the regime responds to even the slightest violations by the oppositional groups with heavy attacks that also target civilians,” Erdogan said.

In a phone conversation Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Turkish leader relayed his frustrations over the failing cease-fire initiatives brokered between the two nations. In response, Putin said Ankara had not held up its side of the Sochi agreement by failing to remove terrorist groups from the de-escalation zone, according to a statement by the Russian president’s office.

Aaron Stein, director of the Middle East program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said an Idlib offensive has been “pre-ordained” since the signing of the MoU and while conditions were not met by both sides, Turkish intervention did delay the movements currently being taken by Syrian regime forces.

Among the agreement’s key terms were the reestablishment of regime access to Syria’s M4 and M5 highways as well as the removal of extremist militants linked to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from Idlib by the end of 2018.

“Neither of those have happened,” Stein told Al-Monitor. “I think we’re just at the point where Russia can’t delay any longer and decided to move ahead.”

In recent weeks, Syrian forces have captured the Idlib city of Maarat al-Numan and are expected to move north toward Saraqib in an effort to secure access to the M5 highway linking Aleppo and Damascus.

Turkish forces stationed at observation posts have not largely engaged in fighting prior to this week’s exchange of fire but have now reorganized in Saraqib to slow the regime offensive. Stein said the move was unlikely to change dynamics on the ground.

“I think we’ll end up in a situation where Turkey retains its observation post. It will just be surrounded by Russian military police in a regime-held area,” Stein told Al-Monitor.

The ongoing fighting has displaced an estimated 520,000 people in Idlib since Dec. 1, according to David Swanson, spokesman for the United Nations' humanitarian coordination office. Cold winter weather has complicated humanitarian relief efforts to accommodate displaced people — 80% of which are women and children — along Turkey’s border.

Turkey currently hosts about 3.7 million Syrians and lawmakers have sought to prevent the influx of more while calling for support from the international community in providing shelter, food and services for displaced people within Syria.

“If Turkey's warnings are not taken into consideration, we warn everyone that a refugee exodus will affect Europe to a large extent,” Omer Celik, a spokesperson for Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, said Tuesday.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, chair of the opposition Republican People’s Party, expressed similar concerns Wednesday while putting forth a five-point plan to de-escalate violence in Idlib and address the worsening humanitarian situation on the border.

Yusuf Erim, a political analyst for Turkey’s TRT public broadcaster, said averting a new migration crisis was Turkey’s “top priority” in Idlib. Doing so would require close collaboration between Ankara and Moscow amid heightened tensions stemming from developments in Syria.

“It’s important to differentiate between Turkey's bilateral relationship with Russia, which is very strong, and both countries’ cooperation in Syria, which is going through a tough period,” Erim told Al-Monitor.

He added, “I think Turkey's decisive stance on Idlib will push Putin to compromise more than he had originally planned. … Regardless of how Syria plays out, the Turkey-Russia relationship has become too big to fail for both sides and will weather Syria's storm.”

Join hundreds of Middle East professionals with Al-Monitor PRO.

Business and policy professionals use PRO to monitor the regional economy and improve their reports, memos and presentations. Try it for free and cancel anytime.

Already a Member? Sign in

Free

The Middle East's Best Newsletters

Join over 50,000 readers who access our journalists dedicated newsletters, covering the top political, security, business and tech issues across the region each week.
Delivered straight to your inbox.

Free

What's included:
Our Expertise

Free newsletters available:

  • The Takeaway & Week in Review
  • Middle East Minute (AM)
  • Daily Briefing (PM)
  • Business & Tech Briefing
  • Security Briefing
  • Gulf Briefing
  • Israel Briefing
  • Palestine Briefing
  • Turkey Briefing
  • Iraq Briefing
Expert

Premium Membership

Join the Middle East's most notable experts for premium memos, trend reports, live video Q&A, and intimate in-person events, each detailing exclusive insights on business and geopolitical trends shaping the region.

$25.00 / month
billed annually

Become Member Start with 1-week free trial
What's included:
Our Expertise AI-driven

Memos - premium analytical writing: actionable insights on markets and geopolitics.

Live Video Q&A - Hear from our top journalists and regional experts.

Special Events - Intimate in-person events with business & political VIPs.

Trend Reports - Deep dive analysis on market updates.

All premium Industry Newsletters - Monitor the Middle East's most important industries. Prioritize your target industries for weekly review:

  • Capital Markets & Private Equity
  • Venture Capital & Startups
  • Green Energy
  • Supply Chain
  • Sustainable Development
  • Leading Edge Technology
  • Oil & Gas
  • Real Estate & Construction
  • Banking

We also offer team plans. Please send an email to pro.support@al-monitor.com and we'll onboard your team.

Already a Member? Sign in

The Middle East in your inbox Insights in your inbox.

Deepen your knowledge of the Middle East

Trend Reports

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (4th R) attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (3rd L) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on February 22, 2019. (Photo by HOW HWEE YOUNG / POOL / AFP) (Photo credit should read HOW HWEE YOUNG/AFP via Getty Images)
Premium

From roads to routers: The future of China-Middle East connectivity

A general view shows the solar plant in Uyayna, north of Riyadh, on March 29, 2018. - On March 27, Saudi announced a deal with Japan's SoftBank to build the world's biggest solar plant. (Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE / AFP) (Photo credit should read FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images)
Premium

Regulations on Middle East renewable energy industry starting to take shape

Start your PRO membership today.

Join the Middle East's top business and policy professionals to access exclusive PRO insights today.

Join Al-Monitor PRO Start with 1-week free trial