Recently, both chambers of the US Congress passed the Caesar Syrian Civilian Protection Act as a part of the National Defense Authorization Act. This bill is supposed “to hold Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies accountable for war crimes in Syria.” (The name "Caesar" was used by a person who secretly documented acts of torture by the regime). Within this framework, the bill “applies sanctions to those who lend support to the Assad regime’s military efforts in the Syrian civil war” and will allow foreign companies to be targeted if they start operating in Syria. This new legislation, signed by President Donald Trump, is likely to cripple the Syrian economy by disconnecting it from any international monetary institution, preventing the implementation of any legitimate private initiatives in the country and by blocking almost completely Syria's return to the Arab world.

This bill is clearly perceived by many in Washington as an appropriate response to the actions of the currently victorious, yet notorious and cruel, Assad regime. It represents the approach of those in the United States who see punitive sanctions as a goal in itself and not as a tool intended to serve realistic purposes — such as decreasing the Iranian military presence or promoting political reform that would lead to the integration of Kurds in the Syrian political system.

Paradoxically, demonstrating what historian Theodore White referred to as "the law of unintended consequences," this course of action is actually likely to increase the reliance of the population on the government, and postpone, if not kill, any hope of reform. It will increase the threats to Europe and to Israel’s regional partners. Worst of all, it will enhance Iranian regional entrenchment, as Tehran's slim support for Syria will become even more essential for the livelihood of the population.

Despite the vague stated purpose of achieving “accountability and justice,” the Caesar bill lacks a realistic endgame. This will not bring Assad and his close circle of advisers to capitulate, nor will it drive any of the top commanders of the Syrian army and security apparatus to turn themselves in to the international Court of Justice. It will not convince the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from ceasing its activity in Syria.