Will Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies jump ship?

This is the second time in recent weeks that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has canceled a diplomatic meeting at the last minute — an important, prestigious and long meeting abroad. After the sorry results of the Israeli elections in September, he canceled his regular participation in the opening discussions of the UN General Assembly, and on Oct. 15 he canceled his Oct. 19 trip to Japan. There Netanyahu was supposed to attend the Oct. 22 enthronement ceremony of the new emperor and meet Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Anyone who knows the Netanyahu family knows that it does not pass up such trips easily. Over the last decade, Netanyahu insisted on attending almost all UN General Assembly meetings with all the associated honors involved. But Japan was the real thing, the jewel in the crown. Alas, the enthronement of the new emperor in Japan will take place without the old emperor from Jerusalem.

On Oct. 23, Netanyahu is supposed to return his mandate (for assembling the next government) to President Reuven Rivlin. The prime minister has no intentions of asking for an extension of 14 days, for one simple reason: He knows that Rivlin will never give it to him. The odds are that Rivlin will hand over the mandate for assembling a government to Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, something that had seemed inconceivable in Israel until recently. If Netanyahu had chosen to attend the event in Japan he could have found “caught” abroad while his 28-day mandate to form a government ran out. Thus, when faced with the choice between asking for political asylum in Japan or continuing his frantic efforts to hold on to his stronghold in Jerusalem — Netanyahu chose the latter.

The dilemma now faced by Israel’s perpetual prime minister is a cruel one. Under the outline of conditions presented by Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman right after Yom Kippur (Oct. 9), Netanyahu would have to dismantle the right wing/ultra-Orthodox bloc of 55 seats he has entrenched himself in ever since the elections. If he agrees, he’ll receive Liberman’s support in the proposal made by Rivlin: This includes a rotation in which Netanyahu would be first to receive the premiership, but then would have to go into “incapacity mode" should an indictment be served against him. This is like a large delicious candy with a small poisonous pill inside. Netanyahu knows that the moment his right-wing partners get a whiff of an upcoming betrayal, they will be the first to jump ship and land in the opposing camp ASAP. Things got even worse Oct. 15 when Shas’ spiritual leader Rabbi Shalom Cohen (head of the party's rabbinic council) called on Blue and White senior leader Yair Lapid and on Liberman to join a government with the ultra-Orthodox. Cohen said that if they agree to the scheme, they “will be awarded with a heavenly voice that will declare … ‘You are invited to the world to come.'”