Why 2017 doesn’t bode well for Turkey's economy
Official figures show the Turkish economy has plunged deeper into recession, as expected fourth-quarter economic numbers may not provide much hope.
In a Nov. 17 article for Al-Monitor, I had explained why the Turkish economy could be headed for a crisis: “The growth figure for the third quarter [of 2016] is likely to be negative and around 0.5%, meaning that the Turkish economy is contracting for the first time since mid-2009. Moreover, a series of indicators point to a continued slowdown thereafter. In short, the spring for the Turkish economy is over, and it is transiting to a fall season of an unknown length. Whether the fall will give way to winter or a serious crisis also remains unclear.”
On Dec. 12, the Turkish Statistical Institute revealed a growth rate that was well below the expectations — the economy had contracted 1.8% in the third quarter. The existing growth data set, meanwhile, was revised according to European Union accounting norms, which led to a 20% increase in the country’s previous gross domestic product (GDP). The new calculation method sparked lengthy debates and controversy, while producing the worse-than-expected growth rate.
