Though Washington and Moscow recently set aside their differences over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s future role in governing Syria to pass a unanimous UN Security Council resolution establishing a timeline for a political process and a cease-fire to end Syria’s almost 5-year-long civil war, establishing a timeline and implementing it are two very different things. A shared understanding of Assad’s future will be a key factor in whether the latest effort to bring peace to Syria succeeds or fails. But it will not be the only factor: A clear understanding of leverage — and how and when to use it — might be no less important.
The United States and many of its allies are eager to see Russia use its leverage over Assad to persuade the Syrian president to agree to step down as part of a political transition. Though Washington and others earlier saw this as a precondition for talks, the United States appears to be softening this stance, if one is to take US Secretary of State John Kerry at his word in assessing his recent assertion that "the United States and our partners are not seeking so-called regime change" in Syria. If Assad’s eventual departure is no longer a precondition for talks, however, it likely remains among the Obama administration’s core requirements for a deal.
