The current Iranian administration has made remarkable progress in its pursuit of a comprehensive nuclear agreement with the world powers. However, it has done far more poorly in its managing of domestic expectations from the immediate impact of a potential deal. Ultimately, this may have a grave effect on its ability to bank on an accord to pursue its broader agenda of political reform and liberalization. Failure to do the latter, in turn, has the potential to undermine popular support.

As Al-Monitor first reported June 26, based on interviews with multiple Iranian sources, a potential final nuclear deal between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) will consist of three phases: adoption, operation and implementation. Adoption refers to an accord in Vienna on the main agreement text and annexes for respective domestic review. Operation will see each side completing its internal review processes and subsequently beginning agreed-upon measures to commence implementation of the deal. When these measures have been taken, implementation will begin as an automatic mechanism links the finalization of Iranian measures with the lifting of Western economic, banking and financial sanctions.

This phasing of a final nuclear deal was not explained to the Iranian public, on the record, until an Iranian official did so July 5 — two days ahead of the then-July 7 deadline of the November 2013 Joint Plan of Action. Iran and the P5+1 have since extended the deadline to July 10.

What is clear from the staging of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is that it will take at least until the end of this year for Iran to begin experiencing a respite from the most damaging sanctions. What is also clear is that the expectations of most Iranians that the outcome of the talks will have a immediate and significant impact on their lives will not be met.