Tehran Stock Exchange plunges, baffling investors
Why is Iran’s stock exchange falling under President Hassan Rouhani and after the easing of sanctions?
The Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is making news in Iran for all the wrong reasons. It's falling, and fast. Its main index peaked at 89,500 points on Jan. 5 of this year. Then it started to fall. By Jan. 26, it had fallen to 81,905 points. At one point, its dive was described as "historic."
A loss of 7,595 points within three weeks (almost 7%) is a lot for any stock exchange, especially the TSE, one of the fastest rising in the world. In mid-August 2010, it crossed the 16,000 points threshold and that was considered major news. Now, despite the recent falls, its value is almost 400% higher than then.
What has been particularly amazing about the TSE is that over the last several years its rise has defied many laws of economic gravity.
Perception of an economy's future well-being plays an important part in the investment decisions of potential stockholders and buyers. So when inflation is up, unemployment is rising and tough sanctions are imposed, you would expect the TSE to fall. However, in Iran, the opposite has happened on numerous occasions. For example, on Jan. 23, 2012, the European Union imposed sanctions against Iran’s biggest export, oil. In a year, the TSE’s main index had risen from 25,540 points on Jan. 25, 2012, to 36,723 points registered on Jan. 27, 2013. That's a total rise of 11,183 points or 43%, during some of the darkest days of Iran’s economy under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
