Lebanon faces three January deadlines
January 2014 will include three significant events for Lebanon related to the formation of the new government, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and the Geneva II Syria Conference.
January in Lebanon will be unusually hot, as a result of three imminent events that might transform it into the most heated political month ever, or maybe even herald the start of a frenzied year on more than one front.
The first such event is an internal constitutional one, as the country enters the countdown period for the formation of a new government. This comes more than nine months after the resignation of the previous one led by former Prime Minister Najib Mikati. The prevailing political atmosphere points to President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam leaning toward announcing a cabinet makeup in January; an eventuality believed driven by constitutional deadlines and upcoming events. For the new government has, according to the constitution, only 30 days to secure a parliamentary vote of confidence, otherwise, it too will be considered resigned. In other words, if said cabinet did manage to see the light by the end of this month, it would not assume its full responsibilities until the beginning of March. On the other hand, the period defined by the Constitution to elect a new president begins on March 25. Therefore, any delay to this schedule would engender further complications and threaten to lead to even more harmful political and constitutional repercussions.
Yet, it also seems apparent that the main two opposing factions in the country have yet to reach an agreement on the formation of the cabinet. As a result, the inevitability of a new cabinet being announced, becomes tied to another inevitability: that this announcement will surely lead to a new confrontation between the two parties to the crisis. In turn, this portends an escalation of the political battle during the coming three weeks in Beirut. Some say that this escalation has already begun, as evidenced by rumors about the postponed announcement of the new government; following the latest suicide bombing that targeted the city’s southern suburbs on Jan. 2, which came to confirm the theory of causal connectedness between political entitlements and security incidents.
The second upcoming event is tied to judicial and security considerations, both internal and external. It will arise when trials begin in The Hague in mid-January, as part of the proceedings by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. This tribunal was established more than four years ago, pursuant to a UN Security Council resolution. The tribunal became, since its inception, added cause for division between the Lebanese, as each of the opposing parties viewed it from diverging perspectives.
