Lebanon Stability Depends On Iran-Saudi Entente
The warming trends in US-Russia and US-Iran ties may or may not benefit Lebanon, unless Iran and Saudi Arabia end their sectarian regional policies.
Lebanon is in a state of waiting — waiting for a multitude of developments that might be a long time coming, and, in the process, lead the country into a constitutional vacuum.
Since an internal agreement about the main issues of Lebanon’s social contract and foreign policy has failed to materialize, the country’s heartbeat has become linked to the pace of the multitude of crises that continue to ravage the region. The role of state institutions has gradually been eroded in terms of ensuring stability, as well as making policies and important decisions, which have been relegated to regional powers that sponsor local political entities.
The last of these crises, and the most influential among them on Lebanon’s political and economic reality, is the Syrian one. The standstill that prevails in Beirut today concerning the formation of a government and the lack of regularity in institutional functions, is but a reflection of the developments underway in Syria, and the regional equations that are associated with them.
The first expectation of this small country that surrendered its fate to the game played by major powers, is tied to the results of the American-Iranian rapprochement, assuming it continues to progress and is not sabotaged by the interests of those whom it has excluded. The rapprochement has not yet led to tangible results on the ground, nor has it affected any important tracks that would be beneficial to Lebanon in any way.
