In the aftermath of Hassan Rouhani’s surprise victory in the Iranian presidential elections, there has been a cascade of pessimistic commentary suggesting that the replacement of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad by the former senior nuclear negotiator will not stop Iran’s alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Iran, these accounts assert, is barely a year away from breakout and a Rouhani administration will not change that trajectory — just lull the West into thinking that a negotiated deal is possible while Iran continues to install centrifuges and pile up ever greater quantities of enriched uranium.

Indeed, one party-pooper postelection briefing warns that “nothing is likely to stop Iran from getting the bomb if and when it decides it wants one,” including the use of military force. The challenge, according to The Economist, “may be less about stopping Iran than managing the consequences of it having a nuclear weapon.”

The commentary is correct to say that whether Iran acquires nuclear weapons is a political decision to be made by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his senior advisers, including Rouhani. It is far too late to bomb the knowledge of how to enrich uranium out of the minds of Iranian scientists; a military strike on Iran’s facilities might only persuade Tehran to try harder to build nuclear weapons.