The recent clashes between Iraqi forces and Sunni Arabs in Hawija reinforce Iraq’s growing sectarianism while creating new opportunities for a Kurdish-Sunni Arab alliance. Alongside shared anti-Maliki sentiments, Sunni Arabs are seeking their own autonomous region and are looking to the Kurdistan region as a model of security and economic development. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) also needs Sunni Arab support from the disputed province of Ninevah, where it has claimed territory and oil fields, as part of its larger ambition to develop and independently export Kurdish crude oil.
Still, the growing conflict between Sunni and Shiite Arabs could create greater complications for the KRG by refocusing the disputed land issues on the Kurds and Sunni Arabs — who largely populate the territories — and not the KRG and Baghdad. The emergence of a Sunni Arab region or a strengthened Sunni Arab community could also pose greater challenges to the KRG’s nationalist agenda, particularly in delineating internal boundaries (Article 140). This territorial challenge, as well as competing nationalist agendas and the radicalization and spillover of Syrian politics, will ultimately check a KRG-Sunni Arab alliance. It will also require the KRG to maintain its Shiite ties to balance power and better assure Kurdish interests in Iraq.
