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Is There Method to Madness Of Nuclear Threats?

Akiva Eldar wonders if there is a rational strategy behind the Iranian and Korean "mad leader" images.
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad flashes a V-sign during the high-level meeting of the General Assembly on the Rule of Law at the United Nations headquarters in New York September 24, 2012. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS) - RTR38CV7
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The threat made by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to attack his southern neighbor and the declaration of the most totalitarian regime in the world that it would not give up its nuclear arsenal under any circumstances, reminded me of what I heard last summer at the offices of the National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul. “At this very moment, as we sit here sipping tea, 22,000 missiles are directed at us”, said professor In Nam-Sik, one of the senior fellows at the institute, in a leisurely manner. And he added with equanimity: “One missile strike from the North on Seoul will result in up to half a-million bodies."

The recurring contention of senior officials in Seoul that the radical regime in the North took advantage of the long years of barren diplomacy in order to become a nuclear power is reminiscent of a prevailing claim in Israel that the ayatollahs in Iran are following in the footsteps of the communists in Pyongyang. This view holds that the endless diplomatic contacts and the overly permissive sanctions are hastening the Iranian nuclear program toward the point-of-no-return. Thus, as is the case with South Korea, Israel will be forced to risk an attack on a nuclear state or to live in the shadow of a permanent nuclear threat from a neighbor motivated by ideological and almost irrational considerations. 

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