It has been the case for decades that a strong, active Syria greatly influences Lebanese politics. A weakened, war-torn Syria similarly affects Lebanon though in a different and more complicated way. This dynamic defines relations between the two countries and is a major aspect of Syrian-Lebanese history. Today the tormented politics of Syria are becoming domestic Lebanese politics.

Regional polarization over Syria is also reflected in polarization over Syria in Lebanon. This dual, overlapping dynamic consists of sectarian and politico-strategic elements, with domestic constituencies in Lebanon closely linked to regional alliances along the lines of the sectarian divides.

The two polarizations are fueling some of the political confrontation and increasing tensions in Lebanon, making it dangerous and difficult to handle and contain. Indeed, each party in the Lebanese scene is fighting a political war, seeking dominance with the hope that its external allies will win the war in Syria.

The current self-distancing policy vis-à-vis Syria is a weak and fragile understanding between the two opposing Lebanese camps — the March 14 and March 8 coalitions — and is constantly being challenged by those concerned. Each side continues to try to outmaneuver the other due to their involvement, directly and indirectly, beyond discourse in providing support and aid to either the Syrian government or its opposition.