As thousands of oil tankers idled in Gulf waters during the early weeks of the US-Israel-Iran war, a growing chorus of forecasts warned that crude prices could surge as high as $200 per barrel, potentially by June if the crisis remained unresolved. Months later, the tide has turned.

After Washington and Tehran signed an agreement on June 17 aimed at ending the conflict, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been recovering; oil prices have retreated toward prewar levels; and financial markets are moving on despite lingering tensions.

The reversal is striking after the conflict produced what the International Energy Agency described as the largest oil supply disruption in history. Yet the long-feared Hormuz oil shock never became the global energy crisis many analysts, policymakers and investors had anticipated. Instead, it revealed a global oil market that proved far more resilient than expected and may already be reshaping assumptions about geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

A prolonged closure of Hormuz has long ranked among the world's ultimate nightmare energy scenarios. Roughly 20% of global oil supplies and sizable liquefied natural gas exports pass through the narrow waterway. Analysts have consistently warned that a sustained disruption could send prices soaring, fuel inflation, and potentially trigger a recession.