Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has raised the prospect of a fresh military operation in Syria, trying his hand once again at creating a safe zone with a depth of about 30 kilometers (19 miles) along the border — a plan he had to shelve in October 2021 after failing to get a green light from Russia and the United States. 

The plan, aimed at areas held by US-backed Kurds, is back on the table amid what Ankara sees as more favorable conditions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With the war boosting his stock, Erdogan believes he can now forge ahead in Syria, wielding Turkey’s veto power against Finland's and Sweden’s NATO bids as a bargaining chip. According to Ankara’s calculus, Washington could acquiesce to a Turkish move in Syria to clear the way for a historic NATO expansion and, depending on the targets Turkey selects, the operation could mesh with US plans to open a second front to Russia in Syria in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Similarly, Ankara reckons that Russia would struggle to focus on Syria amid its preoccupation with Ukraine and be unwilling to vex Turkey, which has provided it with a lifeline against the barrage of Western sanctions. 

The conjuncture has domestic aspects as well. Under growing pressure over Turkey’s hosting of millions of Syrian refugees, Erdogan is drawing a link between the incursion plan and the goal of repatriating the refugees, while diluting the public’s focus on the country’s deepening economic woes. To drum up popular support, he argues that a military operation would provide a safe space for refugees to return. 

Turkey is eyeing Tel Rifaat and Manbij to the west of the Euphrates, and Kobani, Ayn Issa and Tell Tamer to the east of the river.