The way things look now, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon be signing a plea bargain and leaving political life once and for all. This will have a profound impact not only on the Likud but on the coalition as well. Paradoxically, it is not at all certain whether the coalition will be able to survive this.

Even now, less than one week after it was revealed that Netanyahu has been in talks to reach a plea bargain with the prosecution in the criminal case against him, and certainly before any such deal is signed, the coalition’s fragility is increasingly apparent. After all, it is about to lose the very reason for its existence.

The fact is that the government was formed for the sole reason of removing Netanyahu from politics. With a plea bargain, that will have been achieved fully. Even as leader of the opposition, Netanyahu has managed to preserve widespread public support and, with that, pose a threat to the coalition. Without Netanyahu, the coalition will have a hard time justifying its existence. In many ways, Netanyahu is the current coalition’s “safety net.” Without him in the game, the coalition loses that advantage.

The opposition is well aware of its fragility. In fact, in the past three days, the coalition’s leaders have been promising repeatedly that the coalition is stable. The problem is that the more self-confidence they attempt to exude and the more they try to relay the message that it is “business as usual,” the more evident it is that they are worried about what really stands to happen.