Hot take: Will Biden administration leverage Israeli military threats in Vienna?

While the parties to the Joint Comprehensive of Action (JCPOA) and the United States (which withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018) are gathered in Vienna to explore ways to reassemble the Iran nuclear deal, Israel is waging an unsubtle parallel effort to block a new deal and shape the post-talk strategic landscape no matter the outcome of the talks.

‘The only way.’ Israel Foreign Minister Yair Lapid made the case starkly on Nov. 30 after meeting French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson the day before in London. Israel’s position “is firm,” Lapid said. “Sanctions should not be removed. They should be tightened,” as Rina Bassist reports, adding that “a real military threat must be put before Iran” and is “the only way to stop its race to become a nuclear power.”

‘Nothing good will come from this type of deal.’ According to Ben Caspit in Israel:

• “Israeli envoys recently presented intelligence to the heads of the P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Russia and Germany) … that Iran is already making technical preparations for uranium enrichment to the military-grade 90% level.”
• “A senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that the most important next move will be to 'finally place on the table a concrete, realistic military option, one that will scare the Iranians and move them to real action. Only such an option will make the difference.'”
• “Jerusalem calls this state of affairs treading water and regards it as the most dangerous scenario of all, allowing the Iranians to continue their enrichment while the talks drag on. A minority among the analysts, some of them in [Israeli Prime Minister] Naftali Bennett’s circle, believe the sides are ripe to sign an agreement during this round of negotiations, within a week to 10 days. Nothing good will come of this type of deal for Israel.”

Our take: The expectations so far are as low as can be for the Vienna talks. Israel’s military threats therefore cut several ways. On the one hand, Israel is playing the bad cop; its threats could compel Iran to make a deal to avoid an Israeli military strike, at the same time undercutting Israel’s credibility with Washington and the other JCPOA parties who would then be invested in a deal. On the other hand, if there is no deal, Israel’s military planning could become a key component of whatever Plan B emerges to prevent an Iranian nuclear breakout.