Hot take: Nile Dam dispute shapes security realignment in Horn of Africa

Shuttle diplomacy picks up: US Horn of Africa envoy Jeffrey Feltman was in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates last week to de-escalate a potential conflict between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Samuel Ramani has the background here on why the UAE — which has strong ties with all three countries — is emerging as a key diplomatic broker and partner in this effort.

Why it matters: For Ethiopia, the GERD offers hope of a boost for its economic and energy development, potentially positioning it as an electricity exporter in the region. For Egypt, the Nile is vital in another way, providing over 95% of its water needs; Sudan, too, depends on Nile water. Both countries are concerned about water supply disruptions from the dam and have called for an internationally brokered arrangement for the management of its water flow. Mohamed Saied reports here on the high anxiety in Egypt over recent developments, and Abdulla Kadry reports on a new "popular front" to protect Egypt’s access to Nile River water.

Benchmarks: Ethiopia holds elections June 21, which will be a referendum on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s policies. The elections had been delayed from August 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The GERD is a hot nationalist issue; Abiy can’t be seen as buckling to pressure. Ethiopia is threatening to go ahead with the second filling of the GERD in July, a phased process taking at least five years to fill the dam and make it operational. The decision has sparked concern in Egypt and Sudan that the Nile’s water flow would be disrupted again this summer.