The Israel Defense Forces published its annual intelligence assessment Jan. 15 and for the first time reportedly included the aggressive regional policies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a top danger to watch, but it does not foresee a direct confrontation with Turkey in 2020. Rather, a closer look at the currently chilly relations between Israel and Turkey reveals potential escalation manifested not only in the political realm involving the Palestinians or battling terror, but also in the energy sector.
On Jan. 2, Israel, Greece and Cyprus signed an agreement to build a subsea pipeline to carry natural gas from Eastern Mediterranean gas fields to Europe. The EastMed project will transport natural gas from Israeli and Cypriot offshore gas fields to Italy and then on to the rest of Europe, providing the continent with a steady supply of non-Russian gas. Alongside this diplomatic success, however, the project has also further escalated the crisis between the three signatories and Turkey in the arena of natural gas and in general.
The signing of the pipeline agreement marks the latest development in a decade of steadily increasing trilateral cooperation after Israel discovered gas beneath its territorial waters. Energy cooperation accelerated a year ago, with the creation of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). This unique platform, which aims to promote regional cooperation in the field of energy, now includes the original three countries together with Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and Italy. France has asked to join, and the United States wants permanent observer status.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked at the signing ceremony, “This is a historic day for Israel, because Israel is rapidly becoming an energy superpower, a country that exports energy.… This is also a historic day because the cooperation between Greece, Cyprus and Israel is growing stronger. This is a true alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean that is economic and political, and it adds to the security and stability of the region.’’
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