The chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, broke a long silence on Oct. 24 to warn against a possible deterioration into war on several fronts. “The situation is tense and fragile,” Kochavi told military affairs correspondents. “We are dealing with a large number of enemies.” Kochavi added that the silence along Israel’s borders was illusory and that a sudden conflagration could spread to the entire front.
Up until recent months, the IDF had assessed that the various fronts were not connected or dependent on each other, and that a clash with Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza would not necessarily affect the northern front or vice versa. This assessment is shifting. The IDF must now quickly prepare for the possibility that the next confrontation on the northern front will almost immediately ignite the southern front and could potentially spark confrontations on additional ones — not just with Hezbollah, but also with Syria and Iran. Other potential threats could even emerge from the southern branch of the Islamic State in the Sinai Peninsula or from a maritime terror attack on Israel’s Western sea front. Add in that Iran is growingly daring and the IDF assumes that the next attack on Syrian territory will trigger an immediate Iranian military retaliation, and it is clear why warning bells were ringing this week at the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv.
Nevertheless, one must not forget that Israel has been facing a large number of enemies since the day it was established. The country’s security has always been fragile and its borders tense. Why, then, did Kochavi raise the level of anxiety and send the message he issued this week? Anyone who has spent time with Kochavi since he took office in January knows that he is particularly tense and alert these days. The main reason is his understanding that he is on his own. He has no complaints against the political echelon but he knows the facts of life. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the fight of his life and all his energies are invested in a desperate struggle against a political and a criminal ticking clock.
The rest of the political arena is also in limbo. The generals leading the opposition Blue and White Party are irrelevant for now, busy as they are trying to bring down the Netanyahu bastion. Although the 19th IDF chief of staff, Lt. Gen. (res.) Gabi Ashkenazi, has been named chair of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, his authority relates to oversight and is not executive in nature. The government’s security cabinet is paralyzed, and even when it is convened for a rare meeting, it consists of a bizarre collection of young, junior ministers who lack experience in defense matters and whose strategic understanding is limited.
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