Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has made history even before he's done anything. On the evening of Oct. 23, Gantz became the first new politician to receive the mandate to assemble a government in Israel in the Netanyahu era. The last time that happened was in 2009, when Kadima leader Tzipi Livni received the mandate after Prime Minister Ehud Olmert resigned under the pressures of criminal investigations. Livni failed and Israel went to elections. Though Netanyahu received only 27 mandates (Livni’s Kadima had garnered 28), he succeeded in creating a majority coalition. For 11 long years, no one but Netanyahu has received the mandate to assemble the government. It was given to Netanyahu almost automatically in 2009, 2013, 2015 and in both rounds of 2019.

The game is over: Netanyahu failed twice in a row to assemble a government and lost his mandate. It was not long ago that such thing was viewed as implausible or even impossible. Yet despite the upset, the event is of little significance at this point because Netanyahu can still return to power if Gantz fails to assemble a government in the next 28 days.

The odds of Gantz failing are high. Netanyahu has not yet given up and the decisive battle of this fascinating historical-political game is still before us. The only barrier that has been breached for the moment is a psychological hurdle. We are still in the beginning stage that will set the tone for what follows.

Gantz faces two problems: First, he has been dealt a hand only slightly better than Netanyahu's. Gantz is still very far from creating a stable coalition. Second, to emerge as the winner, Gantz will have to what he doesn’t like doing, certainly not under pressure: He’ll have to make a series of difficult decisions.