The quiet on the Israel-Lebanon border had never been this tense. From the beginning of Operation Northern Shield on Dec. 4, Israel has been locating, marking and booby-trapping terror tunnels dug by Hezbollah into its territory, with the ultimate intention of blowing up the tunnels. Thus, a rather bizarre situation has been created on the Blue Line, the border between the two states outlined by the United Nations in 2007 after the Second Lebanon War. The Israel Defense Forces, with its special forces and engineering tools, is working diligently with heavy drills and bulldozers to uncover tunnels on the southern side. Only a few meters away, the Lebanese army is openly observing them, while Hezbollah watches covertly. Add the Lebanese media, some members of which are affiliated with Hezbollah, making themselves comfortable on the Blue Line only five meters from the Israelis. The two sides, armed to the teeth, stare at each other from practically zero range. Both are apprehensive of a spark that would set the region on fire.

For the Israelis, the operation is advancing according to plan. The only mishap has been a diplomatic one: For the first time in a long while, the United States refused to stand up for Israel and impose sanctions on Lebanon. Israeli policy, which views Lebanon and Hezbollah as one entity, has not yet been fully accepted by Washington. The Americans have committed to further pressuring Hezbollah and imposing additional sanctions, but are determined to maintain efficacious relations with the Lebanese government. It has taken much of the wind from Israel’s diplomatic sails because Israel constantly emphasizes that in the next confrontation, it will “send Lebanon back to the Stone Age.” In other words, attacks by Hezbollah would be met with an Israeli military response that would also target Lebanese infrastructure. This stance is in direct contrast to the policy of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in the Second Lebanon War. At this stage, both sides are focusing on not getting ahead of themselves and being dragged into “the next conflict” in the coming days. It is not easy for either side.

Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, who is scheduled to step down in the middle of next month, views the removal of the tunnel threat on Israel as a strategic goal. On the southern front, Israel is very close to announcing that no tunnels remain that extend from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. In the northern front, it will take many long months to get to this stage, but according to the chief of staff, it will be an amazing strategic victory that deprives Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah of the element of surprise. According to Eizenkot, Nasrallah planned to use the tunnels to catch Israel by surprise and send dozens or even hundreds of Radwan commando fighters, strengthened by Iran-affiliated Shiite militias, to stampede Israel’s home front.

The military balance of power between the IDF and Hezbollah clearly tilts to the IDF. However, no army can protect a long, mountainous and winding home front every moment of every day. For Nasrallah, it would be a historic and psychological achievement to take control of a neighborhood in the border town of Metula or infiltrate the edges of any other small Israeli locality near the border, even for a few of hours. It would certainly hurt the Israelis’ sense of resilience. And that’s even before talking about the possibility of Hezbollah entering a northern locality and capturing hostages. A Hezbollah flag in Metula, if only for a split second, would undermine Israeli self-confidence. It would evoke the nightmare of an Israeli locality falling into Arab hands. Such a thing has not happened since the State of Israel was established in 1948, and if it happened today it would tilt the Israeli-Arab balance of power. As far as Eizenkot is concerned, the odds against this happening have significantly declined due to the Northern Shield operation.