Comments from senior Iraqi officials after the conquest of Mosul correspond with the current assessment by Western intelligence agencies that the collapse of the Islamic State's caliphate is inevitable. While those same intelligence sources claim that the fall of Raqqa will take time, it will happen in the end. What this means is that the surviving combatants in Islamic State (IS) territory will attempt to find refuge in more distant and remote regions so that they can continue to export their global jihad, mainly against Western targets in the United States and Europe.

Given the current situation, the various players in the Middle East are preparing for the "day after" IS, when it no longer has a physical presence in the region. That could happen at any time in the next year or two. In other words, it is right around the corner.

"The new Middle East is a strange place," a senior Israeli military official familiar with the northern front told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "The days of seeing things in black and white, of seeing groups painted as enemies versus those groups we consider allies, are over. Many of the players are now both. It all depends on the perspective, particular arena and interests of the moment.’’

That top official was referring, first and foremost, to Hezbollah, Iran, Russia and the Lebanese army. Israel is very worried about the attitude of the United States toward the Lebanese army and the fact that the Americans continue to arm it so vigorously. "The US sees how the Lebanese army is fighting [IS] in the northern part of the country and has marked it as a positive force — or, in other words, as part of the anti-[IS] alliance," says the official. "But that is an illusion, because the Lebanese army is becoming increasingly identified with Hezbollah, and arms that the Americans are providing to the Lebanese army in the north can later be found in the hands of the Lebanese army and Hezbollah in the south, where they can be used against us.’’