To the Israel Defense Forces, it is not at all clear that we are in the midst of a third intifada — quite the contrary.

“We are constantly checking out the situation on the ground,'' a high-ranking military source in Judea-Samaria who asked to remain anonymous told Al-Monitor on Nov. 12. ''At this stage, all the current data we examine and all the key indicators are indeed not remaining steady; but on the other hand, they do not register a significant increase. Yes, there is a rise in the number of incidents, but all the stabilizing forces are still present with no small amount of influence. True, there are violations of civil order and Molotov cocktails are thrown and there were terror attacks in recent weeks. Still, in order to get a comprehensive view of reality we have to take a deep breath and examine things with a professional eye.” The officer added, “The results of such a probe show that we aren’t there yet.”

Until now, the Judea-Samaria territories have remained free of third intifada incidents. The IDF was concerned that the riots and incidents in Jerusalem would overflow into the West Bank. Instead, they remain confined mainly to East Jerusalem, with the addition of a few violent outbursts in sovereign Israel, including the killing of an Arab youth by police in Kfar Kana and the riots in Taibe, an Arab-Israeli village where a lone Jewish driver was almost lynched.

This week, the violence began to overflow. There was a vehicular and stabbing attack in the Etzion settlement Bloc (close to the site where the three Israeli youths were abducted and murdered this past summer) and a fatal stabbing in Tel Aviv by a Palestinian terrorist from the West Bank. Do these herald the spread of riots into Judea-Samaria? IDF sources feel that it’s too soon to tell.