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October 5, 2026

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Analysis

Gulf oil exports are back, but how durable is recovery?

Middle East oil exports rebounded in September as Tehran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz erodes, but markets have hardly celebrated a crude revival that could prove short-lived.

Samuel Wendel

By Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

After US exit, Iran gains space in Iraq and a harder balancing act

For Iran, the easier part may have been getting Washington out, but it may now have to struggle turning the absence into durable influence and reviving its allied militias without provoking instability.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

Trump’s integration policies build on Gulf, Turkey ties and Syria success

Iran’s influence, and the potential for renewed conflict, complicate progress in Iraq.

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

Turkey seizes Iran’s Caspian Airlines jet over $3.4M debt

The court-ordered seizure at Istanbul Airport comes as Iranian carriers face mounting pressure from sweeping new US aviation sanctions.

Latest News

Analysis

As Iran’s grip on Hormuz weakens, what leverage does Tehran have left?

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

After indirect talks, new US sanctions target Iran's weapons supply

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

Saudi stocks hit wartime low as Aramco slides, Gulf oil exports rebound

Iran’s rial hits record low as pressure on oil exports mounts

A man counts Iranian rial notes

Elizabeth Hagedorn

Diplomatic Correspondent

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

Sabena Siddiqui

In Karachi, reporting on South Asia, Middle East, Iran

A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Benjamin Houghton

In Durham, reporting on China in the Middle East

Rahim Rahimov

In Baku, reporting on Middle East-Caucasus ties

Mehrnaz Samimi

In Washington, DC, reporting on Iranian culture

An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man stands next to a Likud party election campaign banner depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump in Bnei Brak, Israel September 9, 2019. The words in Hebrew read, "Netanyahu, a different league" REUTERS/Ammar Awad - RC1F7BD95F00

Israel needs to learn lesson from Turkish assault on Kurds

After the Turkish attack on the Kurds, Israel must realize that when and if the time comes, US President Donald Trump might not stand by the Jewish state.

A metal part of a damaged tank is seen at the damaged site of Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, September 20, 2019. REUTERS/Hamad l Mohammed - RC1BC8385400

The Aramco attack and the rise of nonstate actors

The attack against Saudi Arabia's Aramco facility points to a crucial change on how one traditionally understands armed conflict in the Middle East.

Iranian women cheer at soccer game, finally

For the first time since 1981, Iranian women got unrestricted access to a soccer stadium as they watch the national team beat Cambodia 14-0.

Netanyahu, not Israel, needs unity government to survive

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is misleading the people when he claims that only a unity government would be apt to tackle the Iran threat.

An Israeli soldier stands near the Quneitra crossing in the Golan Heights on the border line between Israel and Syria, October 15, 2018. REUTERS/Amir Cohen - RC1FD4BF4A00

US policy changes leave Israel alone against Iran

Israel is suddenly facing a new reality in which the Iranians are free to attack Saudi infrastructure and the Turks attack Kurds in Syria.

A Turkish armored military convoy is seen driving along the border with Syria, in Akcakale, Turkey October 9, 2019 in this still image obtained from video. REUTERS TV via REUTERS - RC1D52FA41D0

Iran urges Turkey to pull forces out of Syria

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has issued statements opposing the Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria.

Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi speaks during a news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (not pictured) at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, April 30, 2019. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse - RC1AE78313D0

Abdul Mahdi pressured into staying in office

Political parties behind Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi pressure him to not resign.

An investor looks at a tablet supplying stock market information about listed companies on the Tehran stock exchange in Tehran, Iran, January 17, 2016. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi/TIMAATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. - GF20000097649

Iran faces challenges in privatization plans

For privatization to succeed in Iran, the government must empower the real private sector as opposed to semi-state entities.

Turkish civilians look at a Turkish army's convoy driving towards the Syrian border near Akcakale in Sanliurfa province on October 9, 2019. - Turkey launched an assault on Kurdish forces in northern Syria on October 9 with air strikes and artillery fire reported along the border. The Turkish President announced the start of the attack on Twitter, labelling it "Operation Peace Spring". It triggered criticism from Western countries who have allied with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against th

Iran urges Turkey to show restraint as Ankara launches Syria operation

Closely monitoring the tense Turkey-Syria border situation as Ankara launches an incursion, Iran has called on Turkey to resort to dialogue and abort its military offensive there.

A staff member removes the Iranian flag from the stage after a group picture with foreign ministers and representatives of the U.S., Iran, China, Russia, Britain, Germany, France and the European Union during the Iran nuclear talks at the Vienna International Center in Vienna, Austria July 14, 2015. To match Analysis USA-ELECTION/IRAN REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo - S1AEULVWKDAA

‘The only game in town’: Progress seen in French initiative for US-Iran talks

A French initiative to de-escalate US-Iran tensions has developed a framework for broader talks to resolve regional tensions.

A gas flare on an oil production platform in the Soroush oil fields is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Gulf July 25, 2005. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi/File Photo - S1BEUBPCZPAB

Chinese energy giant bids farewell to $5 billion Iran project

In what could be seen as yet another blow to Iran's sanctions-hit economy, China's state oil company has withdrawn from a major multibillion-dollar deal in the country's south.

Iraqi security forces stand guard as demonstrators take part in a protest over unemployment, corruption and poor public services, in Baghdad, Iraq October 2, 2019. REUTERS/Khalid al-Mousily - RC1CC9BEC6E0

Iraqi government seems powerless against protesters even as 'unknown' snipers take toll

For the seventh day in a row, protesters challenge the Iraqi government across Baghdad and the south; the death toll rises to nearly 120 as unidentified snipers pick off demonstrators.