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October 5, 2026

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Analysis

Gulf oil exports are back, but how durable is recovery?

Middle East oil exports rebounded in September as Tehran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz erodes, but markets have hardly celebrated a crude revival that could prove short-lived.

Samuel Wendel

By Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

After US exit, Iran gains space in Iraq and a harder balancing act

For Iran, the easier part may have been getting Washington out, but it may now have to struggle turning the absence into durable influence and reviving its allied militias without provoking instability.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

Trump’s integration policies build on Gulf, Turkey ties and Syria success

Iran’s influence, and the potential for renewed conflict, complicate progress in Iraq.

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

Turkey seizes Iran’s Caspian Airlines jet over $3.4M debt

The court-ordered seizure at Istanbul Airport comes as Iranian carriers face mounting pressure from sweeping new US aviation sanctions.

Latest News

Analysis

As Iran’s grip on Hormuz weakens, what leverage does Tehran have left?

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

After indirect talks, new US sanctions target Iran's weapons supply

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

Saudi stocks hit wartime low as Aramco slides, Gulf oil exports rebound

Iran’s rial hits record low as pressure on oil exports mounts

A man counts Iranian rial notes

Elizabeth Hagedorn

Diplomatic Correspondent

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

Sabena Siddiqui

In Karachi, reporting on South Asia, Middle East, Iran

A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Benjamin Houghton

In Durham, reporting on China in the Middle East

Rahim Rahimov

In Baku, reporting on Middle East-Caucasus ties

Mehrnaz Samimi

In Washington, DC, reporting on Iranian culture

Tehran decries foreign influence in Iraq protests

Though they acknowledge the legitimate demands of Iraqi protesters, Iranian officials are focusing on the role of foreign countries they accuse of using the protests to create chaos and instability.

Oil pump jacks pump oil in Al-Jbessa oil field in Al-Shaddadeh town of Al-Hasakah governorate April 2, 2010. REUTERS/Stringer (SYRIA - Tags: BUSINESS ENERGY) - GM1EA9B1T8R01

Syria looks to revitalize oil production to attract investors

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is tightening the regime's grip on oil fields with an eye toward their eventual rehabilitation.

U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen talks with Ahmad Kuzbari, co-chair for the Syrian Government, and other members ot their delegation after the first meeting of the new Syrian Constitutional Committee at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, October 30, 2019. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse - RC145F453450

As Syria constitution talks kick off, is Kurdish administration 'finished'?

As representatives from Syria's government, opposition and civil society meet in Geneva to draft a new constitution for the war-torn country, Al-Monitor spoke with French academic Fabrice Balanche on prospects for the talks.

Lebanese army soldiers stand on a street in Beirut, Lebanon October 30, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir - RC11CBA3CB80

Iran worried by Lebanon 'vacuum' after Hariri resignation

The political uncertainty arising from the resignation of Lebanon's prime minister is sparking worries in Iran, which maintains key interests in the tiny but strategic Arab country.

Iran's hard-liners force controversial film off screen

A controversial movie about an honor killing has been removed from Iranian theaters after pressure from infuriated hard-liners.

Abbas Mousavi, spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, gives a press conference in the capital Tehran on May 28, 2019. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo credit should read ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images)

Iran downplays significance of Baghdadi's death

Iranian officials have shrugged off the news that the United States killed the Islamic State leader.

U.S. President Donald Trump makes a statement at the White House following reports that U.S. forces attacked Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in northern Syria, in Washington, U.S., October 27, 2019. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts - RC1BB3AB3D30

Islamic State leader dead in US raid

Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed during a raid in northwestern Syria, says President Donald Trump.

A man walks away from the U.S Treasury Department in Washington, U.S., August 6, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder - RC1FD03EA500

Sanctions experts say new US Treasury measure could inhibit humanitarian trade with Iran

The US Treasury's new Iran "humanitarian" mechanism is seen by experts as a tool to inform new sanctions on the country.

What IDF chiefs won’t say out loud

Some of Israel’s previous military chiefs took a courageous stand and publicly stated that there was no military solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but current Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi is on the same wavelength as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif attends a joint news conference after meeting with Norway's Foreign Minister Ine Eriksen Soereide in Oslo, Norway, August 22, 2019. NTB Scanpix/Stian Lysberg Solum/ via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. NORWAY OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN NORWAY. - RC169141C270

Zarif urges united nonaligned front against US

Four years after signing of the JCPOA, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said relying on the United States is a "delusion."

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia October 22, 2019. Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin/Kremlin via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. - RC11687C0E70

How Iran sees Russia-Turkey deal on northeastern Syria

Iran's exclusion from the Turkey-Russia talks on northern Syria reflected its lack of leverage on the matter, but Tehran welcomed the agreement forged, especially its support for the Adana Agreement.

Iraq's President Barham Salih meets with Iran's President Hassan Rouhani in New York, U.S., September 25, 2019. Picture taken September 25, 2019.The Presidency of the Republic of Iraq Office/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. - RC17C7ED7020

Is Iran expanding its influence in Iraq?

Iran seems to have further expanded its influence in the Iraqi government; Tehran still, however, faces challenges in Iraqi governmental bodies that have remained independent of Iran.