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October 5, 2026

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Analysis

Gulf oil exports are back, but how durable is recovery?

Middle East oil exports rebounded in September as Tehran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz erodes, but markets have hardly celebrated a crude revival that could prove short-lived.

Samuel Wendel

By Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

After US exit, Iran gains space in Iraq and a harder balancing act

For Iran, the easier part may have been getting Washington out, but it may now have to struggle turning the absence into durable influence and reviving its allied militias without provoking instability.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

Trump’s integration policies build on Gulf, Turkey ties and Syria success

Iran’s influence, and the potential for renewed conflict, complicate progress in Iraq.

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

Turkey seizes Iran’s Caspian Airlines jet over $3.4M debt

The court-ordered seizure at Istanbul Airport comes as Iranian carriers face mounting pressure from sweeping new US aviation sanctions.

Latest News

Analysis

As Iran’s grip on Hormuz weakens, what leverage does Tehran have left?

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

After indirect talks, new US sanctions target Iran's weapons supply

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

Saudi stocks hit wartime low as Aramco slides, Gulf oil exports rebound

Iran’s rial hits record low as pressure on oil exports mounts

A man counts Iranian rial notes

Elizabeth Hagedorn

Diplomatic Correspondent

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

Sabena Siddiqui

In Karachi, reporting on South Asia, Middle East, Iran

A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Benjamin Houghton

In Durham, reporting on China in the Middle East

Rahim Rahimov

In Baku, reporting on Middle East-Caucasus ties

Mehrnaz Samimi

In Washington, DC, reporting on Iranian culture

(From L to R) Former Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazi, Omani Foreign Minister Yussef bin Alawi bin Abdullah and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif attend the Tehran Security Conference on January 8, 2018, in Tehran. / AFP PHOTO / ATTA KENARE (Photo credit should read ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

Iran's regional peace initiative faces major challenges

While Oman and Iran may have high hopes for the Hormuz Peace Endeavor, regional security arrangements have typically needed great-power backing to hold them together.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks at a news conference on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, U.S., September 26, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan Mcdermid - HP1EF9Q1DCLMP

How Rouhani and Trump almost reached a deal

While hopes have emerged as the result of a prisoner exchange between Iran and the United States, some analysts believe this won't lead to negotiations and a Trump-Rouhani meeting.

U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland Edward McMullen greets Xiyue Wang in Zurich, Switzerland December 7, 2019. U.S. Embassy in Switzerland/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY - RC2GQD9FJJ4H

Iran ready for 'comprehensive' prisoner swap with US

Archenemies Iran and the United States appeared closer to exchanging all their prisoners, as Tehran said it was "fully ready" for such a swap.

Members of a Taliban delegation, led by chief negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (C, front), leave after peace talks with Afghan senior politicians in Moscow, Russia May 30, 2019. REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina - RC17FC2683A0

Is Iran-Taliban cold peace within reach?

To secure its part in Afghanistan's political future, Iran is actively engaging the Taliban, but the road will be bumpy, given the multiple ideological and geopolitical challenges.

Foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) arrive, ahead of an annual leaders summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 9, 2019. Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. - RC2RRD9HRDDG

Underlying tensions still restrict full GCC reconciliation

While Qatar has been reinvited to the GCC party, the UAE appears to be spoiling for the role of party pooper.

U.S. President Donald Trump waves as he walks from the Marine One helicopter to board Air Force One and depart Washington for a day and evening trip to Florida from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., December 7, 2019. REUTERS/Loren Elliott - RC2KQD97NVV8

Trump says Iran prisoner swap shows deal can be made

A successful US-Iran prisoner swap is a confidence building measure but it remains to be seen whether it could be a prelude to negotiations on broader US-Iran tensions.

Iranian head of the reformists' coalition list for the parliamentary elections Mohammad Reza Aref at a polling station in Tehran on February 26, 2016. Iranians began voting across the country in elections billed by the moderate president as vital to curbing conservative dominance in parliament and speeding up domestic reforms after a nuclear deal with world powers. AFP PHOTO / ATTA KENARE / AFP / ATTA KENARE (Photo credit should read ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

Iran’s Reformists face major challenges in coming election

Iran's Reformist factions are in for an uphill climb leading to the parliamentary election because of their legislators' lackluster performance since the 2016 election.

Iraqi demonstrators carry pictures of people who were killed during ongoing anti-government protests in Nassiriya, Iraq December 4, 2019. Picture taken December 4, 2019. REUTERS/Alaa al-Marjani - RC2MPD9WP3M6

Chaos spreads in Iraq as PM office remains vacant

As Iraq approaches the constitutional deadline for selecting the new prime minister, chaos is spreading in the streets.

An Iraqi demonstrator climbs to Iraqi security forces check room during ongoing anti-government protests in Nassiriya, Iraq December 4, 2019. Picture taken December 4, 2019. REUTERS/Alaa al-Marjani - RC2MPD9W9BIX

US sanctions three Iran-backed militia leaders for violence against Iraq protesters

The United States will impose sanctions on three leaders of Iran-backed Iraqi militias that have committed human rights abuses against Iraqi protesters.

A protester holds an Iraqi flag amid a cloud of smoke from burning tires during ongoing anti-government protests in Najaf, Iraq November 26, 2019. REUTERS/Alaa al-Marjani - RC2ZID9MARY6

As chaos and violence consume Iraq, US keeps focus on deterring Iran

The Trump administration’s realism is well suited to the crisis in Iraq, with a clear red line on keeping out Iranian missiles.

Brian Hook, U.S. Special Representative for Iran, speaks at a news conference in London, Britain June 28, 2019. REUTERS/Simon Dawson - RC1B15C08920

In shift, State’s Hook says Yemen’s Houthis independent from Iran

A top Trump administration Iran official praised a de-escalation proposal by Yemen’s Houthi rebels amid apparent progress in Saudi-Houthi talks to end the war in Yemen.

Speaker Ali Larijani attends a session of parliament in Tehran, Iran July 16, 2019. Nazanin Tabatabaee/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS. ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. - RC17FA4094A0

Is Iran's long-serving speaker retiring from politics?

Iran's parliament speaker said he is not running in February's parliamentary elections and also does not plan to run for president in 2021; these statements brought jubilation to the camp of his hard-line rivals and triggered debate as to what his next steps might be.