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October 4, 2026

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Analysis

Gulf oil exports are back, but how durable is recovery?

Middle East oil exports rebounded in September as Tehran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz erodes, but markets have hardly celebrated a crude revival that could prove short-lived.

Samuel Wendel

By Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

After US exit, Iran gains space in Iraq and a harder balancing act

For Iran, the easier part may have been getting Washington out, but it may now have to struggle turning the absence into durable influence and reviving its allied militias without provoking instability.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

Trump’s integration policies build on Gulf, Turkey ties and Syria success

Iran’s influence, and the potential for renewed conflict, complicate progress in Iraq.

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

Turkey seizes Iran’s Caspian Airlines jet over $3.4M debt

The court-ordered seizure at Istanbul Airport comes as Iranian carriers face mounting pressure from sweeping new US aviation sanctions.

Latest News

Analysis

As Iran’s grip on Hormuz weakens, what leverage does Tehran have left?

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

After indirect talks, new US sanctions target Iran's weapons supply

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

Saudi stocks hit wartime low as Aramco slides, Gulf oil exports rebound

Iran’s rial hits record low as pressure on oil exports mounts

A man counts Iranian rial notes

Elizabeth Hagedorn

Diplomatic Correspondent

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

Sabena Siddiqui

In Karachi, reporting on South Asia, Middle East, Iran

A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Benjamin Houghton

In Durham, reporting on China in the Middle East

Rahim Rahimov

In Baku, reporting on Middle East-Caucasus ties

Mehrnaz Samimi

In Washington, DC, reporting on Iranian culture

Democratic 2020 U.S. presidential candidates (L-R) billionaire activist Tom Steyer, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) participate in the seventh Democratic 2020 presidential debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., January 14, 2020. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton - HP1EG1F09ANZZ

Intel: How many US troops do 2020 Democrats want to keep in the Middle East?

Democratic presidential hopefuls started Tuesday’s debate by slamming President Donald Trump’s Iran policy and articulating their own vision for the future US force posture in the Middle East.

U.S. soldiers inspect the site where an Iranian missile hit at Ain al-Asad air base in Anbar province, Iraq January 13, 2020. REUTERS/John Davison - RC24FE9RIQUT

Pentagon considering reinforcing missile defenses after Iranian strikes

After Iran's Jan. 8 ballistic missile attacks on an Iraqi air base housing US forces, the Pentagon is now challenged with preventing a repeat occurrence.

Rocket fire from Gaza threatens Israel-Hamas arrangement

Although the party behind recent missile attacks remains unclear, Israel held Hamas at least partially responsible and directed its military retaliation at the Islamist group.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends a session of the Shura Council in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia November 20, 2019. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. - RC22FD9B6RI9

Reconciliation drive between Hamas, Saudis hits wall

Hamas wants to restore ties with Saudi Arabia, but mediation efforts were stymied by disagreements over the US "deal of the century," the Arab Peace Initiative and other issues.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper speaks during a joint news conference with Japan's Defense Minister Taro Kono at the Pentagon in Washington, U.S., January 14, 2020. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts - RC2XFE9HT6N6

Pentagon doesn’t clarify ‘imminent’ threat to kill Soleimani

Statements from the Pentagon throw into question Trump's justification for the US strike on Qasem Soleimani.

Democratic 2020 U.S. presidential candidate and U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks at a campaign town hall meeting in Dover, New Hampshire, U.S., January 10, 2020. REUTERS/Brian Snyder - RC29DE9KKN4S

Intel: Warren threatens Trump with insider trading probe over Soleimani strike

Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Chris Van Hollen urged an insider trading investigation into President Donald Trump for reportedly telling Mar-a-Lago guests about the Soleimani strike in advance, according to a joint letter sent to the chairmen of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday.

What will happen first: Iranian nuclear bomb or fall of the regime?

Israel is concerned not only about Iran enriching uranium to assemble a nuclear bomb but also about the possibility of Iran developing a missile that could carry such a bomb.

Rescue teams are seen on January 8, 2020 at the scene of a Ukrainian airliner that crashed shortly after take-off near Imam Khomeini airport in the Iranian capital Tehran. - Search-and-rescue teams were combing through the smoking wreckage of the Boeing 737 flight from Tehran to Kiev but officials said there was no hope of finding anyone alive. The vast majority of the passengers on the Ukraine International Airlines flight were non-Ukrainians, including 82 Iranians and 63 Canadians, officials said. (Photo

Iran makes arrests in plane crash probe amid public fury

Iran's judiciary says arrests have been made in connection with the crash of a Ukrainian plane last week that Tehran blamed on a "human error" by its armed forces.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif speaks to reporters upon his arrival at the airport in New Delhi, India, January 14, 2020. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi - RC2RFE9JIN9F

Iran’s next moves depend on US

Iran is likely to choose a measured response to US actions, as long as Washington does the same in return, while at the same time trying to increase US costs of staying in the region.

Britain's Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian take part in meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Brussels, Belgium, May 15, 2018. REUTERS/Yves Herman/Pool - RC1DC146CCD0

European powers trigger Iran deal dispute mechanism

The step by the United Kingdom, France and Germany is intended to buy time to resolve the impasse over Iran reducing its adherence to the nuclear deal to protest a lack of sanctions relief, but analysts fear it could hasten the accord’s demise.

Hamas policemen in Gaza City stand guard during a mourning ceremony organised in honour of slain Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani (portrait) killed in the Iraqi capital Baghdad in a US air strike a day earlier, on January 4, 2020. (Photo by MAHMUD HAMS / AFP) (Photo by MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images)

Hamas-Fatah division deepens with Soleimani’s assassination

Palestinians express conflicting opinions over the US assassination of Iran's Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, while faction leaders praise him as a martyr.

REFILE - REMOVING EXTRA WORD Chairman James Inhofe (R-OK) questions Defense Secretary nominee Mark Esper during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Esper's nomination in Washington, U.S. July 16, 2019. REUTERS/Erin Scott - RC15A0083B70

Senate Armed Services Chairman Inhofe endorses Iraq sanctions

Key Republican leaders are lining up behind President Donald Trump’s threats to hit Iraq with crippling sanctions.