Today is the last day before the end of the Ramadan fast according to the lunar calendar, for those observing it in Turkey. In keeping with the significance of “Arife,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed the nation in a televised speech. As expected, he railed at outside forces bent on destroying Turkey and vowed they would not be allowed to succeed. Unusually, as the self-styled champion of Syria’s Sunni Arabs, a worn and deflated-looking Erdogan did not utter a peep about the regime violence unfolding in the rebel-held province of Idlib.

The latest Russian-backed regime offensive against Idlib is seen as the biggest escalation of the war since last summer — and a failure of Ankara’s efforts to put it off.

Analysts say Ankara’s balancing act, inserting itself as a buffer between the rebels, the regime and Russia, formalized under a deal struck in September between Erdogan and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Sochi may finally be unraveling. Under its terms, Turkey was supposed to diminish the influence of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, an extremist militant group that continues to pose the biggest threat to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Instead, the jihadis who claim to have broken off their links with their al-Qaeda mentors have since January tightened their grip across Idlib and in northern Hama.

On Friday, the Kremlin pointed the finger of blame squarely at Ankara, saying it was its responsibility to prevent the rebels from firing at civilians and Russian targets. The statement followed Erdogan’s call for a cease-fire the night before in a telephone conversation with Putin.