Does ‘Syrian trio’ of Russia, Iran and Turkey have a future?
There are signs that the Astana talks on the Syrian war — which began in 2017 and are sponsored by Moscow, Ankara and Tehran — have little prospect of making progress going forward.
On Feb. 16-17, the Russian seaside town of Sochi hosted the 15th round of Syrian peace talks between Russia, Iran and Turkey — the three guarantor countries of the so-called Astana talks. The Astana process began over four years ago, when the trio hosted talks between a Syrian opposition delegation and representatives from Damascus in the Kazakh capital of Nur Sultan (formerly Astana) in January 2017.
In addition to the three sponsor states, representatives of international organizations — including the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross — as well as delegations from the Syrian government and the opposition took part in the latest round of negotiations. The event was held in Sochi due to COVID-19 restrictions in Nur Sultan.
While the Astana talks were created to address tasks not given due attention in the UN-backed Geneva process — primarily for work “on the ground,” ensuring cease-fire-related measures and facilitating the exchange of prisoners — there are indications the talks largely have outlived their usefulness. They were never able to become an alternative to the Geneva platform by filling the agenda with political and military aspects.
Meanwhile, military issues are increasingly being raised in bilateral negotiations between the presidents of Russia and Turkey and are being implemented by the Russian and Turkish military and diplomats, without reference to the Astana format. Oftentimes, decisions by Moscow and Ankara related to Syria are approved retroactively at Astana trio summits attended by heads of state of Russia, Turkey and Iran.
