Turkey once again assumed the role of “game changer” — this time in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. As with previous cases in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, the big question is whether Ankara can gain diplomatic dividends for its “hard power.”

Since hostilities erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh on Sept. 27, Turkey’s past military sales to Azerbaijan — especially attack drones — gained attention. Field reports indicate that, unlike the inconclusive skirmishes of the past, the Azerbaijanis have gained considerable territory from the Armenians.

The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute goes back decades. An Armenian-majority autonomous enclave within Azerbaijan’s borders during Soviet times, Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding Azerbaijani territories came under Armenian occupation in the early 1990s, displacing some 800,000 Azerbaijani civilians. For nearly 30 years, the so-called Minsk Group — co-chaired by France, Russia and the United States — has failed to offer a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Now, with Turkey’s backing, Azerbaijan seems to be cutting the Gordian knot.

Of course, Turkey’s gains in Nagorno-Karabakh and elsewhere worry other parties. Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron accused Turkey of transferring jihadis from Syria to Azerbaijan, a claim Ankara denied. Macron’s statements followed the tried and tired analysis that everything that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does abroad must be for “religious” reasons. Others claim that Erdogan is overreaching geopolitically and militarily — just as he had done in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean.