Will Azeri-Armenian flare-up change energy game in South Caucasus?
Azeri-Armenian clashes in the strategically significant Tavush area could be the harbinger of tectonic changes in the energy politics in the South Caucasus, Turkey and Iran.
Even before the recent flare-up, tensions were running high on the Azeri-Armenian border. Reports of mutual harassment or skirmishes, mainly over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, often made the headlines in the past several years. But were last week’s surprise clashes in the Tavush area just another episode in ongoing hostilities?
The Tavush area lies on major energy, railway and trade routes that link Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and connect Europe to Central Asia and China without Russian and Iranian involvement. Given the region’s significance as well as the timing and nature of the clashes, one could hardly dismiss the flare-up as customary. Its causes and potential consequences go beyond the long-running territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
To better understand the significance of the flare-up, its timing is a good point to start. Both governments needed an escalation to divert public attention from their deepening economic woes amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Azerbaijan was already badly hit by plunging oil prices. Both governments struggled to manage the economic and social aspects of the pandemic, grappling with rising unemployment. In the lead-up to the clashes, leaders on both sides struck intransigent postures and used inflammatory rhetoric in an apparent bid to create a smokescreen around the economic and social impacts of the pandemic.
A more profound reason, however, appears hidden in the July 15 warning by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that Washington was moving toward sanctions against energy companies involved in Russian pipelines to Europe and Turkey.
