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1. Five reasons why Erdogan can’t win in Syria...and may need an assist from Putin
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said today that a military escalation in Idlib province in Syria is “a matter of time” unless Bashar al-Assad’s army withdraws to boundaries agreed with Russia back in September 2018.
Unfortunately, the Sochi Memorandum between Ankara and Moscow, which defined de-escalation borders as well as 12 Turkish military observation outposts, may now be a mostly dead letter. The Syrian military, backed by Russia and Iran, blew by those boundaries in recent weeks, including 10 of the 12 outposts, killing 13 Turkish soldiers and one military personnel member in the process.
It’s hard to imagine what Erdogan “wins” by going heavy into northwestern Syria with 10,000 troops and 2,000 artillery, tanks and armored vehicles. Instead, he may be digging a bigger hole in the Syrian sand. In the end, he will likely need an assist from Russian President Vladimir Putin for a face-saving exit strategy.
Here are 5 reasons why escalating the military conflict is likely to complicate, rather than solve, Turkey’s troubles in Syria: | | | |
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