1. Trump offers Iran cooperation on Islamic State, but diplomacy needs an assist
US President Donald Trump said today that “Iran appears to be standing down” following Iran’s attack on US bases in Iraq, which led to no American or Iraqi casualties. Trump added that the United States “is ready to work together” with Iran to combat the Islamic State (IS) and on “other shared priorities.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also signaled a pause, tweeting after the missile barrage last night that Iran had “concluded proportionate measures in self-defense” under the UN Charter, adding that “we do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”
Missiles and nukes: With its attack on Iraq, Iran again showed off its ballistic missile capabilities, to the alarm of the region. The Trump administration has declared that restrictions on missiles need to be part of a new and more expansive nuclear agreement with Iran. Along with the attack on the Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities in September, Iran has now hit two key US regional partners with missiles and drones in just four months. Given Iran’s capabilities, it probably could have targeted Americans in Iraq this week, but didn’t, preferring instead a demonstration effect and a sign of restraint.
Perhaps more alarming, in the long run, is Zarif’s tweet Jan. 5 that Iran will no longer abide restrictions on the number of centrifuges it develops in its nuclear program. With both Iran and the United States retreating from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapons breakout has increased.
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Our take: Trump has repeatedly expressed his interest in negotiating a new and more expansive nuclear deal with Iran. And he just put “working together” on IS and “other shared priorities” on the table. Iran should take note; Trump is opening another door to talks, and there is a lot to talk about. US-Iran diplomacy, however, could also use an assist, given the new round of bad blood, mutual misperceptions, the absence of direct channels, and the current conflict spiral. Many world leaders have tried to broker a mediation: French President Emmanuel Macron, Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Pakistan President Imran Khan; and Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, to name a few. Oman and the Swiss have also been key facilitators. And Russian President Vladimir Putin may now sense an opening (see below).
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Read more: Check out the reporting by Laura Rozen and the Week in Review for recent takes on US-Iran diplomacy.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria January 7, 2020 (photo by Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin/Kremlin via Reuters)
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2. With all eyes on Iran, Putin renews shuttle diplomacy between Erdogan and Assad
A Christmas surprise: As the United States and Iran lobbed threats and more at each other, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a surprise visit to Damascus Jan. 7, the date of the Russian Orthodox Christmas, and then to Turkey, where he met today with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Syria and Libya on the sidelines of the inauguration ceremony of the TurkStream gas pipeline.
The pretext for Putin’s first visit to Damascus was to spend the holiday with Russian troops there. He also held meetings with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Russian and Syrian military leaders, and visited Muslim and Christian holy sites.
Reassurance after US hit on Soleimani: Both Putin and Assad lost a key partner in Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani last week. It was Soleimani who personally appealed to Russia to bail out Assad with more expansive use of force in 2015, when Assad was on the ropes. The Russian military had high regard for Soleimani. Both Putin and Assad likely shared concern about the US action, what comes next and its consequences for both US and Iranian roles in Syria and the region.
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Our take: Putin senses both risk and opportunity following the US killing of Soleimani last week. Here are four trends we’re watching:
- Turkey-Syria diplomacy: For Putin, the endgame in Syria is not just helping Assad’s forces retake Idlib, the last stronghold of opposition and jihadi forces, in northwest Syria, but in brokering a deal between Assad and Erdogan. There is lots of bad blood here, but Putin’s latest shuttle run shows he is not abandoning the effort.
- Iran-Russia relations: Tehran will need Russia and Putin more than ever given heightened tensions with the United States. Putin doesn’t mind the additional leverage, including possibly with Trump to offer a diplomatic offramp.
- Gulf diplomacy: Neither Russia’s Persian Gulf security initiative nor Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s call for regional diplomacy within the UN framework, known as the Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE), has gotten much traction so far. The Gulf states want a diplomatic offramp, but will still take cues from Washington.
- Russia-Israel relations: Putin has outstanding relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and will be in Israel Jan. 22-23 to commemorate the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp. Putin has not been able to establish Iran-Israel red lines in Syria, and that task didn’t get any easier by the United States taking out Soleimani.
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Read more: Maxim Suchkov has the scoop here on Putin’s surprise visit to Damascus.
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3. Iraqi Kurds find middle ground between US and Iran an ‘impossible task’
Both Washington and Tehran are in a with-us-or-against-us frame of mind. Managing relations with both is an impossible task for Iraqi Kurdish leaders. Also worth noting: Iran’s missile attacks this week landed in the Kurdistan Region.
Until recently, Iraqi Kurdish leaders would have welcomed the repositioning of at least some of the 5,000-plus US troops stationed in Iraq to the Kurdistan Region as a sign of a lasting US commitment to their region’s security.
Now, as US-Iran hostilities escalate with Iraq as a battlefield, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is weighing the risks and opportunities of such a decision, if it comes before them, in the broader context of managing pressures from both Washington and Tehran as hostilities escalate following the US killing of Soleimani and the Iranian retaliatory missile strikes.
Iran “expected more”: The KRG has to watch its eastern flank. Iran’s consul general in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, said he “expected more” expressions of support from the KRG following Soleimani’s assassination. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani said this was “fake news.” KRG President Nechirvan Barzani sent a personal condolence letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Final word: The need to balance the competing pressures of Washington and Tehran will only increase. Masoud Barzani, the most influential figure in Iraqi Kurdistan, tweeted Jan. 7 that the Kurds would remain neutral because “we cannot be involved in any proxy wars.”
Read more: Amberin Zaman has the scoop here.
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Istanbul’s Arter Museum pushes boundaries of art scene
“The museum stands in sharp contrast to its surroundings. The area was once part of the historic Tatavla neighborhood, home to ethnic Greeks before economic and political pressure forced their exodus decades ago. Today, an Orthodox church represents the last remnant of this past. The area has since attracted migrants from Africa and Syria who crowd into its dense, dilapidated housing to be close to the city center.” Read the article here.
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Operating in the gray zone: Countering Iran’s asymmetric way of war
This could not be more timely. Washington Institute analyst Michael Eisenstadt explains how Iran “operates in the gray zone between war and peace to manage escalation, leverages asymmetries to achieve disproportionate effects, and employs its hybrid force structure for maximum impact. The current US approach … is based on overt action, blunt force and emphatic messaging, all of which entail a heightened potential for escalation. But an alternative approach — one focused on unacknowledged activities, indirection, subtlety and discreet messaging — could more effectively deter Iran while reducing the risk of further escalation and broader conflict.” Read the report here.
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Ties that bind: Family, tribe, nation and the rise of Arab individualism
A fantastic report by Jon Alterman and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Middle East program. including extensive field research and interviews in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan and Tunisia. Much to learn here about the generational and demographic changes in the Arab world and what it means for Arab society, culture and politics. Read it here. |
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US President Donald Trump delivers a statement about Iran flanked by US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Vice President Mike Pence and military leaders in the Grand Foyer at the White House in Washington, DC, January 8, 2020 Photo by Reuters/Kevin Lamarque.
