1. Senior Kurdistan Region official sees opportunity for ‘citizen-based’ reform in Iraq

Falah Mustafa Bakir, senior foreign policy adviser to Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani, said that Iraqi Kurdistan “supports the legitimate demands of the protesters” and the Iraqi government’s reform plan “as long as it’s serious.”

In an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor in Doha, Bakir, who previously served as foreign minister to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), spoke about how the Kurds’ own experiences of frustration and disappointment with the Iraqi government since 2003 allow them to sympathize with the demonstrators’ demands to devolve and share power more equitably. Here are some highlights of our conversation:

• On the demonstrations: “We are against the use of violence [against the demonstrators] … We need to make sure that there is a trust between the public and the security forces because the security forces are there for the sake of the people. We can't have a republic of fear again [referring to Saddam Hussein’s regime] … It's already been overthrown.”
• On reform: “There is an opportunity for people in power today, first, to be very clear in fighting corruption, in ensuring transparency, and delivering services. And that whole program should be focused and centered on citizens, a citizens-focused, a citizens-based program so that people could see the values.”
• On the Iraqi government: “The problems we see today are the accumulation of problems of the last 15 to 16 years — non-implementation of the constitution, not addressing the demands of the Kurdistan Region, not addressing the demands of the Sunnis, not addressing the demands of the Shia and all the other groups. We can't put all the blame on the prime minister. The prime minister was a compromise candidate who all the groups supported. He doesn't have a power base. We should have been his support. All these groups who are in the government should have supported him, but, unfortunately, the moment the government was formed, each group acted as if they are not part of the government.”
• On the opposition parties: While the Iraqi Kurds had the experience of working together since 1991, following the US war with Iraq, many Iraqi opposition parties “could not adapt to change when they became in power. They were in power but acting, behaving and planning like they were in the opposition.”
• On the Iraqi Kurdistan referendum (2017): It “was exactly the same expression of the people in Baghdad and the south today. It was a feeling of frustration, disappointment and failure that we have waited for 12, 13, 14 years.”
• On the electoral law: “Changing it to make it more open, make it more democratic, more representative, no problem with that. That has to be done through the right mechanisms, not in a rush and not through the wrong approach, because we can't afford creating another mistake in solving a problem … and creating another problem.”
• On the provincial committees: “If all groups and all communities agree, then they can work on that as well. We know that some of the salaries, expenses and allocations are very high. Since this will help ease the tension and rebuild trust, it can be addressed and tackled in the right way.”
• On Iran: “Iraq cannot change its neighborhood … We want Iraq to find areas of cooperation as a sovereign independent state, but unless Iraq is strong in its institutions and unless Iraq is strong politically, economically, militarily, socially, it cannot stand interference [such as from Iran].”

2. UAE’s Gargash calls for efforts to head off conflict with Iran

UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash called for “dynamic diplomacy” to head off a conflict with Iran in a speech this week at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, sponsored by the Emirates Policy Center. Highlights of the speech:

• “This new regional order also requires a strong regional multilateralism that can support the peaceful resolution of disputes.”
• “I believe there could be a path to a deal with Iran that all parties might soon be ready to embark on.”
• On Yemen: “An agreement must take account of the legitimate aspirations of all parts of Yemeni society. That includes the Houthis. Houthi militias have wreaked havoc on the country, but they are a part of Yemeni society and they will have a role in its future.

US ambassador: ‘Only solution is a political solution’: In his first public remarks as US ambassador to the UAE, John Rakolta told The National, “We are working very closely with the UAE to try to convince Iran that the only solution is a political solution,” adding that “the president of the United States has made that abundantly clear over and over and over again that the only solution is a political solution.”

Iran will do ‘whatever it can’: On November 13, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Seyyed Abbas Mousavi said that Iran “will do whatever it can to set the stage for talks between countries in the region” in response to questions from reporters about Gargash’s speech. Mousavi added that “Iran believes if this process is set in motion … the common interests of all regional countries will be ensured and their differences of opinion respected.” Mousavi added, “The Islamic Republic of Iran hopes the regional countries will embrace the HOPE initiative and begin comprehensive regional talks in a bid to eradicate the root causes of divisions in the region and take practical, serious and effective steps toward resolving regional crises.”

UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr. Anwar Gargash and participants (including Andrew Parasiliti) pose at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, Nov. 10, 2019 (photo courtesy of Emirates Policy Center)

3. Iranian scholar: Government has ‘changed the calculus in the region’

Iran’s shooting down of a US drone in June 2019 “was not an easy decision to make,” according to University of Tehran professor Nasser Hadian, but it revealed Iran’s capability and “preparedness for war,” if it were to come to that.

In an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor in Doha, Hadian explained that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not willing to negotiate “from a position of weakness.” Iran’s “strategic patience” has run out following the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 and impose new sanctions on Iran. So Khamenei sought to “change the calculus in the region” by letting all parties know that Iran is both ready to step back from the Iran nuclear deal and show that any confrontation with Iran would be no “cakewalk” and would affect all parties in the region.

On regional diplomacy: “Iran very much wants a negotiation on regional security structures,” said Hadian. “[It] may take some extra confidence-building measures of inviting them [Gulf state officials] to nuclear sites, give them special treatment, [such as protocols for advance notice] when you fire missiles. So I would not be surprised to see these steps to be taken, to give them the confidence.”

On Iraq: Despite Iran’s tight relationship with the Iraqi government and a range of Iraqi political figures and parties, as well as the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), Tehran will ultimately go along with what Iraq Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani decides. Even though Sistani is not an agent of Iranian influence, Tehran ultimately respects his influence with Iraqi Shiites, according to Hadian. “When Sistani decides about something, Iran will not oppose it,” said Hadian. “Although they may not like it, they would go with the decision.”

‘Eggupation in Beirut’

“For people who grew up in Beirut, even a fleeting glimpse of the infamous dome-like structure next to Martyrs’ Square evoked feelings of discontent and anger,” writes Euan Ward from Beirut. And now “the Egg” has become an “impromptu revolutionary classroom.” Read the article here.