1. Shut down protests, no matter what it takes, Khamenei urges Iraqis; Sistani demurs
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has directed Iraqi leaders to shut down Iraq’s protests, even if that means more violence. But Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s most influential cleric, is not backing down in his support for the protesters.
Khamenei: Iran not giving up Iraq.
On Nov. 21, Khamenei met in Tehran with Iraqi officials including Falih al-Fayadh, head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU); Hadi al-Amiri, head of the pro-Iran Badr Organization; and Mohammad Hashimi, head of the prime minister's office.
A source who attended the meeting told Al-Monitor that Khamenei’s message was clear and direct: Iran is not going to give up Iraq without a fight, and it’s time to shut down the protests.
Iraqi government digs in.
Ali Mamouri writes this week, “It is clear the Iraqi government is not willing to undertake any serious reforms to satisfy the protesters' demands. Instead, it is working on alternative plans to end the protests with minimum reforms.”
More than 400 protesters have been killed and thousands wounded since demonstrations began last month. The protests have been driven by the youth, but have included a wide and inclusive cross section of Iraqi society, calling for a dramatic program of reform and change.
Mamouri lays out the Iraqi government’s emerging three-part approach, which tracks with Khamenei’s wishes: escalation of violence in support of “security”; propaganda against the protesters by describing them as inspired by foreign enemies; and attacks on and abduction of protesters by unidentified forces.
Dueling Ayatollahs.
Sistani and Khamenei have a kind of rivalry for leadership among Shiites in Iran and Iraq, as Mamouri wrote here. But in Iraq, there is really no contest — Sistani holds sway. And Sistani is not giving in to Khamenei; the Iraqi cleric is backing the protesters.
At Friday prayer last week, Sheikh Abdul Mahdi al-Karbalai, a representative of Sistani, said, “Bloodshed will overthrow any political system and will lead to the replacement of the government with a completely new one” — meaning if the Iraqi government keeps up the bloodshed, it could end up sealing its own demise.
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Our take: Khamenei’s sense of urgency about Iraq is linked to the widespread protests in Iran, which broke out Nov. 15 in response to an increase in fuel prices. Since then, 140 people have reportedly been killed, with nearly 2,000 injured and thousands arrested. In Iraq, Sistani’s support for the protests may not be enough. As we wrote here last week, Iraq needs a bridge between protesters and reform-minded politicians to avoid further tragedy.
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Read more: Check out Ali Mamouri’s must read report here on Iran's role in Iraq, and our essay on "the beginning of the end of the post-Saddam era."
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Iraqi demonstrators are seen near Iraqi security forces during ongoing anti-government protests, in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 25, 2019. Photo by (REUTERS/Khalid al-Mousily).
