Leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany and France agreed at an Oct. 27 summit in Istanbul that the key to peace in Syria lies with a UN-backed process. Syria, however, begs to differ.

Moscow and Ankara called the summit to bring together some members of two groups working separately toward solutions to the Syrian war: the so-called "small group," which includes France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Britain and the United States; and the group led by the trio of Iran, Russia and Turkey that has been holding talks in Astana, Kazakhstan.

It was the first time the two groups had sat down together at the negotiating table, and it provided few reasons for optimism. Each country has its own interests in Syria and in broadening the group. Russia, a guarantor of an all-Syria cease-fire, seeks a return of refugees from Middle East countries to Syria (a nod toward Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's wishes) and foreign investments aimed at bolstering the regime. Turkey, a NATO member, would like to remove the financial burden of its involvement in the war and perhaps gain some support in its opposition to Assad. In such an arena, France and Germany pretend to be interested in the settlement, address the refugee return under Russia's terms and hope for the best.

The four-nation summit was preceded by bilateral contacts between all the attendees regarding Syria. On Oct. 25, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by phone with his US counterpart, Donald Trump, who asked Macron to present their common vision on Syria at the Istanbul summit. Prior to his own travel to Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Macron, and shortly after arriving, Putin held bilateral meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.