On Sept. 7 the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran will meet in Tehran for the third trilateral summit on Syria as part of the Astana process. The agenda is likely to center around the situation in Idlib, the largest area still controlled by the Syrian opposition. Ankara would like to keep Idlib under rebel control until the end of the peace process, while Moscow and Tehran are pushing for an offensive against opposition factions. On Sept. 4, the Russian and Syrian air forces resumed their strikes on Idlib after a three-week pause. This may signal that preparation for a ground operation has entered its final stage.
Although an assault on Idlib is almost inevitable, its scale is still under debate, and this will likely be a subject of the talks in Tehran. Turkey may indeed provide some concessions by yielding certain northwestern areas to the regime forces. However, these concessions should be made in a way that would not put the rebel factions under the threat of elimination, disarmament or any critical losses. Every party should be able to “save face.”
