President Donald Trump’s May 8 decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has caused international debate on Iran to be mostly focused on the implications of the US move — including the future of the nuclear deal. Yet given the recent and ongoing developments in Syria amid Iran’s active involvement there, the potential of the Syrian crisis to determine the future of Iran’s role in the region remains largely unaffected. Nonetheless, as Western states endeavor to redefine their role on the Syrian stage, Iran has felt the need to adapt its approach to the new equations. 

One important development in this regard that could directly affect Iran’s role and interests in Syria is a clear shift in the European approach from playing a mostly political and diplomatic role toward military and operational activism on the ground.

The first representation of such a policy shift appeared when France and Britain joined forces with the United States on April 13 to conduct airstrikes against Syrian military positions in response to the alleged use of chemical weapons by Syrian forces in eastern Ghouta. Furthermore, it was announced May 1 that Paris and Washington are establishing a joint military base in Manbij, a Kurdish-dominated city in northern Syria. Meanwhile, during his official visit to the United States in late April, French President Emmanuel Macron for the first time talked about the necessity of reaching a broader deal with Iran to contain Tehran’s regional activities, among other issues. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian had previously named Iran, along with Turkey, as a country violating international law in Syria.

As the United States has redirected its Syrian strategy from fighting the Islamic State toward preventing the expansion of Iran’s influence, and while the Israelis have been resorting to direct military measures against Iran’s presence in Syria, Tehran sees the recent European activism in Syria as part of a wider plan, devised primarily to undermine Iran’s regional influence. As far as the Syrian issue is concerned, Iran is trying to prevent this scenario from being realized by focusing on at least three main areas.