Iran focuses on political solution while keeping military option open in Syria
While Iran’s plan to overcome the current challenges in Syria focuses on diplomatic and political measures, Tehran is preparing for all scenarios, including military escalation.
The Israeli military conducted a strike against a Syrian air base in Homs province on June 3, targeting an alleged Iranian "drone facility." It came less than 24 hours after a separate round of airstrikes against Syrian military positions in the southwestern region of Quneitra, close to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel again claimed its targets included positions and facilities belonging to Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah.
The intensification of Israeli strikes against the positions of Iran and its allies in Syria suggests that Tel Aviv is doubling down on its efforts to contain Iran’s influence in the Arab country. However, those efforts are not limited to the military sphere, as Israeli leaders are trying to pressure the Islamic Republic on the diplomatic front as well.
The White House declared in a May 30 statement that the top security officials of the United States, Russia and Israel will meet in Jerusalem in June to discuss “regional security issues.” Later reports suggested that “the future of Iran’s presence in Syria” would be at the top of the meeting’s agenda, with Washington and Tel Aviv trying to compel Moscow to take concrete steps to contain Iran’s role in Syria in exchange for certain “incentives,” like recognizing Bashar al-Assad’s legitimacy and ascertaining Washington’s contribution to the process of Syria’s reconstruction.
The United States has reportedly denied any deal with Russia on legitimizing Assad, and Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov called reports suggesting otherwise “fake news.” However, Iran's being the main topic of discussion between its partner, Russia, and its archenemies, Israel and the United States, is enough to worry Iran. As such, Tehran's main challenge in Syria — apart from facing a new wave of aggressive Israeli policies — is the possibility that Russia could change course regarding Iran's presence in Syria.
