Israel and Iran Move Toward 'Nuclear Opacity'

With no breakthrough expected in the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, a new scenario is beginning to loom: one of extended nuclear opacity in the Middle East. There is, indeed, a rising likelihood that in coming years the Middle East will become the scene of power plays between countries — i.e., Iran and Israel — holding nuclear arsenals without declaring their possession.

While admittedly no unequivocal evidence shows that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, there are circumstantial reasons to believe that it is acquiring the energy supplies, technologies and scientific knowledge to build a nuclear deterrent. In an annual threat assessment, delivered 12 March to the US Senate, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper emphasized, “We do not know if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.” Noting that Tehran “has developed technical expertise in a number of areas,” he added, “This makes the central issue its political will to do so.” This is why it is worth examining the delicate scenario of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and choosing not to formally cross the Rubicon. In fact, statements from Iranian officials sometimes echo those of another country that several decades ago embarked on the path of nuclear opacity — Israel.

The expression “nuclear opacity” was coined in reference to Israel’s nuclear policy since the 1960s. Israel has neither signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty nor acknowledged possession of a nuclear deterrent. This calculus of nuclear opacity was based on two conflicting realities.

First, faced with countries challenging its existence, Israel found nuclear weapons to be the ultimate guarantor of its survival. Second, Israeli leaders, however, were also concerned that acknowledgement of its arsenal might trigger proliferation in the region. As a result, they maintained a policy of ambiguity regarding the country’s deterrent capabilities rather than denial per se. The rationale of this nuclear opacity was to convey to neighboring states the credibility of Israel’s nuclear arsenal, and the resolve to resort to it if necessary, while not officially acknowledging its existence.