Trump officials look past Netanyahu, push Eisenkot to form government quickly

TEL AVIV — Senior Trump administration officials are urging Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as soon as possible, but the path to forming a new government is blocked by one of Eisenkot's own allies, an Israeli political source told Al-Monitor.

President Isaac Herzog formally tasked Eisenkot with forming Israel's next government on Nov. 8. The decision followed consultations with parliamentary factions, during which parties representing 67 of the Knesset's 120 members recommended Eisenkot and representatives of 46 backed Netanyahu. One seven-member faction declined to endorse either candidate. Eisenkot now has 28 days to form a government, with the possibility of a 14-day extension.

Major complications

Although a majority of Knesset members recommended Eisenkot, major complications stand in the way of his efforts.

The Israeli political source disclosed that Eisenkot's team maintains regular contact with President Donald Trump’s inner circle. According to the source, a senior US official told Eisenkot's associates, "You don't have time; you're in trouble. You have to replace Netanyahu as soon as possible." Similar messages were conveyed by others in Trump's circle, the source said.

Trump himself, who endorsed Netanyahu on the eve of the Oct. 27 elections, has not publicly weighed in on his preference. “They’re very similar in terms of their policy,” Trump told reporters on Sunday, adding that Eisenkot “said very nice things about me. He says he loves Trump, but … It’s certainly a contest between him and Bibi Netanyahu.”

The advice from Trump officials reflects not only their personal dislike of Netanyahu but also their understanding that the prime minister has become a toxic brand for many Americans, as reflected in sentiment surrounding the US midterm elections, the Israeli political source explained. Trump offered a similar analysis of the Republican losses, telling "60 Minutes" on Sunday, “There seems to be a dislike for Israel. You have that. You have the war itself. You have the gas prices. And I think those are the primary reasons.”

Paradoxically, while sharing Trump associates' sense of urgency, Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Lieberman remains one of the major hurdles between Eisenkot and the prime minister's office. Although Lieberman is a staunch Netanyahu opponent and a member of the Eisenkot-led Change Bloc, his red lines are complicating coalition talks.

Lieberman's veto

Throughout the election campaign and its aftermath, Lieberman has shot down any government reliant on the support of Israel’s Arab parties. They won an unprecedented 19 seats in the new Knesset and could easily provide the anti-Netanyahu bloc with the majority needed to replace the current government.

Meanwhile, Lieberman, who ran on a promise to institute equal military service for all citizens, has recently softened his position. On Friday he indicated willingness to consider a partnership with the two ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, despite their emphatic demands that their constituents be exempt from the draft. However, negotiations with the ultra-Orthodox parties, which hold a combined 13 Knesset seats, are likely to drag on beyond the 28-day legal deadline for Eisenkot to cobble together a government.

Herzog could grant Eisenkot a 14-day extension if coalition efforts show progress. If he fails, he will be forced to return the mandate to the president, who would then likely task Netanyahu with trying to form a government. The political source noted that Lieberman could continue complicating negotiations until the last moment.

Eisenkot had hoped to present a minority government supported externally by the votes of Arab lawmakers in the Knesset without formally inviting them into the ruling coalition, a close associate of Eisenkot told Al-Monitor. Once the government is sworn in, bringing it down would require a minimum of 61 lawmakers, a threshold Netanyahu’s bloc cannot currently muster.

Netanyahu has the support of 46 lawmakers from his Likud party, far-right partners and one ultra-Orthodox party, and his prospects of luring defectors from Eisenkot’s bloc are slim. Furthermore, the Arab parties have made it clear in talks with the president that they would vote against a Netanyahu-led coalition, effectively burying his chances of returning to power.

If Eisenkot fails, Netanyahu would have only 28 days to try his hand, with no chance of extension. After that, the mandate would revert to the Knesset, where any lawmaker who can garner the support of 61 members could attempt to form a government. If none of these routes succeed, Israel will face yet another round of elections.

Deadlock

This potential deadlock was what prompted Eisenkot to propose a minority government with external Arab support, but Lieberman's resistance has quashed the plan. Lieberman argues that relying on Arab lawmakers would be deeply unpopular with voters and would give Netanyahu’s bloc the political ammunition it needs to collapse the government, trigger elections and sweep back into power.

However, Lieberman’s resistance plays directly into the hands of the ultra-Orthodox parties, making them the power brokers of the Change Bloc. Their demands include draft exemptions and state funding for their schools, many of which refuse to teach core subjects such as math and science.

While Eisenkot and his allies will find it difficult to accept what they view as political blackmail from the ultra-Orthodox, they are driven by the urgent need to replace Netanyahu, the associate acknowledged. Eisenkot, he said, believes Israel has rarely been in a worse state. Netanyahu and his appointees have taken control of the domestic security services and police and are actively working to delegitimize the election results by claiming foreign interference boosted voter turnout among Israel’s Arab minority, which makes up 21% of the population. The country is also facing mounting international isolation and demands for sanctions.

Eisenkot and his supporters remain convinced that Lieberman must be persuaded to accept an Arab-backed minority government, the associate insisted. The coalition could then potentially expand its support by bringing in the ultra-Orthodox at a later date and at a lower political cost.

Lieberman, who has made no secret of his own prime ministerial ambitions, has become the enfant terrible of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, pulling the strings and holding the key to Israel’s political future. The next three months of coalition negotiations promise to be tense, overshadowed by the persistent threat of repeat elections, a prospect Eisenkot and his supporters are determined to avoid.