The emerging Iran-Oman Hormuz deal: What's at stake?

An emerging deal between Iran, Oman and possibly the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is poised to resolve an immediate shipping crisis in the strategic waterway. 

What happened: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Tuesday that "there’s a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict." 

On Sunday, Iranian officials said that Iran and Oman were nearing a deal on the strait, through which 20% of global oil supplies flowed prior to the war. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that the deal would entail a route through the strait outside of the three existing shipping corridors in the waterway. 

On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a call with his Omani counterpart, Badr Al-Busaidi, amid ongoing talks between the two countries, though Iranian state media did not specifically mention the Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that Iran is seeking a temporary deal with Oman under which Tehran would control inbound traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, while Oman would be able to grant exit clearance after notifying Iran. The arrangement would also give Iran the ability to intervene in the waterway. Last week, the outlet reported that Oman presented a plan to Iran for joint management of the strait in which shipping companies would pay fees for passing the strait on a voluntary basis. The report did not specify whether the fees would go to Iran and Oman or solely to Iran. 

Three shipping routes currently exist through the strait. One runs through Iranian waters and is controlled by Tehran, which says it is the only safe passage. A second, proposed by Oman and the UN’s International Maritime Organization after the war began, follows Oman’s coastline but has drawn ire from Iran. The third is the prewar central shipping lane, mostly through Omani waters, which Iran has declared a "danger zone."

Why it matters: As Al-Monitor’s Jack Dutton reported, such an agreement would turn Iran’s wartime leverage over the Strait of Hormuz into a longer-term strategic gain.

A framework that gives Tehran a formal role in determining how ships move through the waterway may not only enhance Iran's strategic leverage in the region but also strengthen its hand in future negotiations with the US, preserving the threat of renewed disruption if talks break down. 

"A deal that gives Iran formal control over the strait would greatly improve its leverage over the rest of the Gulf," Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, told Al-Monitor. Such an arrangement, he said, would give Tehran "ample scope" to use its new role as the waterway’s "traffic cop" to extract concessions from neighboring states.

The same dynamic could apply to US-Iran negotiations. Brew said Tehran "sees Hormuz as its chief means of squeezing the US for more concessions." "Until suitable alternatives to Hormuz are developed … [the strait] will remain potent enough to give Iran the means of delivering real economic and political cost to any US administration that attempts to negotiate," he added.

The deal may provide Iran with financial benefits and restore the country's oil exports, a key lifeline for its economy. Tehran’s oil sector has been heavily constrained by US sanctions and the US naval blockade during the conflict. The shipping data firm Vortexa reported that Iran’s oil exports totaled 209,000 barrels per day in May, down from 1.34 million bpd in April and 1.9 million bpd in March. A reopening of the strait, combined with any future US decision to ease sanctions or issue an export waiver, would likely see Iranian crude shipments increase. The US naval blockade of Iran lasted from April to June and then resumed again in mid-July. 

Brew said that Iran is also eyeing other benefits from a Hormuz arrangement. Tehran's aim, he told Al-Monitor, "is to eventually charge tolls and fees for use of the strait. But establishing control — and having that control recognized by Oman and the rest of the region, as well as the US — is the important first step." 

Citing Iranian officials, The New York Times reported on Monday that the agreement would include a "service fee," which would be split between Iran and Oman. Under international maritime law, coastal states cannot condition ships’ transit through international straits on the payment of fees, tolls or other charges. They may, however, levy fees for specific services provided, like pilotage, towage or other maritime services. 

Even if Iran accepts a deal without service fees, "it will likely push for more" later down the line, Brew said. 

Know more: A deal with Iran that includes fees could provide a financial boost to Oman as well. The US-based Baker Institute for Public Policy noted in a July report that one of Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tarik’s economic priorities is boosting state revenue. The sultan is seeking additional revenue to trim the national debt and maintain Oman’s investment-grade rating, according to the institute. 

Oman has important relations with both the US and Iran and has traditionally acted as a mediator in the region. The sultanate hosted talks between the US and Iran in February, just days before the war broke out, and brokered the truce between the US and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen in May 2025. 

Despite indications that a deal is on the horizon, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported overnight that a cargo ship off the coast of Oman near the strait was struck by an "unknown projectile."

Shipping data firm Kpler reported that just nine vessels transited Hormuz on Sunday, seven of which used the route set by Iran. There were two sanctioned and two shadow fleet vessels among the ships sailing that day, according to the firm. More than 100 ships traversed the waterway daily before the war began.