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Analysis

Another US-Iran truce, same Hormuz standoff: What comes next

Since February, two major diplomatic efforts have produced temporary pauses in fighting, but neither has translated into a lasting agreement.

TOPSHOT - This aerial photograph shows boats anchored off Oman's northern Musandam Peninsula near the Strait of Hormuz on June 27, 2026. Iran launched attacks on US sites in the Gulf in response to American strikes on the country, state media said on June 27, after Washington accused Tehran of attacking one of its cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The trading of fire raised questions about efforts to keep the crucial waterway open while Washington and Tehran negotiate a final settlement to a war that beg
This aerial photograph shows boats anchored off Oman's northern Musandam Peninsula near the Strait of Hormuz on June 27, 2026. Iran launched attacks on US sites in the Gulf in response to American strikes on the country, state media said on June 27, after Washington accused Tehran of attacking one of its cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. — AFP via Getty Images

After a week of teetering on the edge of renewed all-out war, President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that the US would halt strikes on Iran and resume talks aimed at reaching a deal. Yet with diplomatic efforts having unraveled twice in recent months, analysts doubt the durability of the latest halt, saying the key challenge will be turning another temporary pause into a structured diplomatic process.

In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump wrote that the US had agreed to pause attacks and that the two sides had agreed to the “perimeters of a deal,” which “would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran's nuclear threat.”

On Sunday, Trump told reporters that negotiations with Iran would begin Monday afternoon and described a deal on the Strait and Iran's denuclearization as “imminent.”

Trump added that Iran does not have a deadline to come to an agreement.

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