Iran’s new calculus: Strike first, talk later

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WASHINGTON — The war that President Donald Trump initially said would last a matter of weeks is again escalating as it enters its sixth month and an increasingly assertive Iran demonstrates a willingness to strike first. 

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Thursday that “the aggressor will be punished,” according to a statement published by state-run media, after Iran claimed drone and missile attacks targeting US bases in Jordan and Kuwait. 

On Wednesday night Eastern time, the US military launched a wave of airstrikes against IRGC targets in southern Iran, including command centers and missile sites, in retaliation for a thwarted Iranian ballistic missile attack in Jordan a day earlier. 

The tit-for-tat has upended an informal truce that took effect Friday when both sides halted their nearly two-week run of attacks and counterattacks. By escalating first, it appears Iranian officials are embracing a new strategy, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. 

“What they're doing, essentially, is to say, ‘We're not going to let you decide the process. We too can surprise you,’” Vatanka said. 

Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed at the White House Tuesday three options for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program: escalating economic costs through sanctions and the blockade, ratcheting up military strikes or pursuing a diplomatic deal, according to a senior Israeli official who briefed journalists the next day. The official said Netanyahu did not advocate for one approach over the other, likely mindful of the perception that he is dragging the United States back into an already unpopular war. 

Analysts say Iran believes it can wait out Trump as he contends with growing resistance in Congress and higher gasoline prices ahead of the midterm elections. Only 28% of US adults approve of how Trump is handling the Iran war, a drop from 34% last month, according to a new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. 

That erosion in public approval, together with reportedly dwindling munitions stockpiles, helps explain why the administration has set aside plans for the “massive attack” on Iranian infrastructure that Trump has repeatedly threatened. 

“This is a game of chicken now, and the loser is the player with less courage,” said Sasan Karimi, professor of Iranian studies at the University of Tehran. “Iran wants to show that [it] can define the equations of escalation, and not react only to the decisions that are made in DC.”

Fronts multiply

Recent days have seen the war reverberate beyond the United States and Iran. Saudi Arabia entered the conflict on Tuesday night, joining the US aircraft in carrying out strikes against Iran-backed groups in Iraq that Riyadh said fired on its oil facilities. 

Shortly after, a US-owned oil tanker and a second ship caught fire in an unclaimed drone attack at an Egyptian port in the Mediterranean, marking the first such strike in Egypt since the war began. In Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthis targeted a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea on Tuesday as their maritime blockade threatens to further disrupt global shipping. 

As more countries get pulled into the war, mediators Pakistan and Qatar are working to restart peace talks that collapsed earlier this month when Iran began attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the United States reimposed its naval blockade. A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said this week that the two sides were communicating only via intermediaries, contradicting Trump’s claim that Tehran had sought a meeting with US negotiators. 

Use it or lose it

Vatanka said ultra hard-liners in Iran continue to oppose any talks with the United States, while those calling the shots — including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the heads of the Revolutionary Guard — are open to diplomacy “if it results in actual benefits for Iran.”

The memorandum of understanding reached in mid-June offered Iran significant sanctions relief and potential access to frozen assets in return for opening the Strait of Hormuz and launching talks over its nuclear program. Since the deal's collapse, the United States has announced new sanctions targeting Iran's revenue-generating efforts in the strait and oil sales to China.

The added economic pressure has yet to force Iranian concessions. Tehran's latest actions show a greater interest in escalation than engagement, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program. 

“The number of issues Iran is willing to fire ballistic missiles over is growing, which means the regime’s threshold to use them is dropping,” Taleblu said. That Iran appears to be firing small volleys in the attacks, he said, suggests concern over its remaining inventory. 

“There seems to be a use-it-or-lose-it mentality developing among security services,” Taleblu said, predicting that the “skies of the Middle East are going to be much more missile-ridden in the future.’’